SWS: 10.4M Pinoys without work but joblessness eases in Q3 2014

Although some 10.4 million of them were jobless in the third quarter of 2014, Filipinos are now more optimistic of work available in the next 12 months, a new survey by pollster Social Weather Stations showed.

The SWS, which conducted the survey September 26 to 29, also said joblessness in the third quarter eased to its lowest so far this year.

SWS said joblessness in the third quarter was at 22.9 percent, equivalent to an estimated 10.4 million adult Filipinos.

It said this was down three points from the 25.9 percent (about 11.8 million) in the second quarter of 2014, and the lowest since 21.7 percent in September 2013.

SWS noted adult joblessness has been on a downward trend since reaching a record high 34.4 percent in March 2012.

On the other hand, SWS also noted optimism that work would become available in the next 12 months improved.

It said the net optimism on job availability, or the difference between those expecting more jobs over those who see less, increased by eight points to a “fair” +12 from the “mediocre” +4 in the second quarter.

About 33 percent – better than 32 percent in the second quarter – of respondents said the number of jobs in the next 12 months will increase, while 33 percent (from 29 percent) said it would stay the same and 22 percent (from 28 percent) said these would decrease.

The results of the survey were posted Thursday night on SWS’ media partner BusinessWorld.

SWS classifies net optimism on job availability scores of +30 and above as “very high”; +20 to +29, “high”; +10 to +19, “fair; +1 to +9, “mediocre”; zero to -9, “low”; and -10 and below, “very low.”

“Adult joblessness has traditionally been dominated by those who voluntarily left their old jobs and those who lost their jobs due to economic circumstances beyond their control,” the report said.

The survey had sampling error margins of ±3% for national and ±6% for area percentages.

Breakdown

In its report, the SWS noted that the jobless in the September report included:

– those who resigned (12 percent or about 5.5 million adults, “barely” changed from 13 percent in June but up from 9 percent in September 2013)

– those retrenched or whose employers shuttered operation (7 percent or about 3.3 million adults, down from 9 percent in June and flat from one year ago)

– were first-time job-seekers (3 percent or about 1.6 million adults, also “hardly” changed from 4 percent in June and 5 percent the past year).

Those who said in September that they were retrenched included 4 percent (from 6.3 percent) whose contracts were not renewed, 2 percent (from 1 percent) whose employers closed operations and 1 percent (from 1.5 percent) who were laid off.

No comparison with government figures

But the SWS’ report cannot be compared to the government’s unemployment data as they use different definitions.

The SWS’ survey respondents are at least 18 years old compared to the lower official boundary of 15 years.

Also, SWS said its definition of joblessness is based on two traditional criteria: without a job at present and looking for a job.

“Hence, those not working but not looking for a job either – like housewives, students, as well as those retired and disabled – are excluded from the labor force,” it said.

But the government’s Labor Force Survey defines the unemployed using three concepts: not working, looking for work and available for work.

“Hence, those who are not available for work – even though they are looking for a job – are excluded, while those available for work but are not seeking it (for reasons such as illness, belief that no job is available or waiting for results of a job interview, etc.) are included,” it said.

If the SWS used the government’s criteria of availability, SWS said joblessness among adults in the third quarter would be 15.4 percent, or about 6.4 million Filipinos.

SWS said this would include 15.3 percent (6.3 million adults) who were not working, looking for work, and available for work and 0.2 percent (77,000) not working, not looking for work but were otherwise available for work. — Joel Locsin/ELR, GMA News