Exports fall eases to 2.4% in 2015 – DTI

Aggregate exports of goods and services likely declined 2.4 percent last year, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said.

The DTI based its computation by combining the annualized services export data with an estimated growth rate of 5.2 percent and merchandise exports which declined 5.6 percent last year.

“The full-year export performance represented a recovery, albeit very slightly, from the 5.8-percent decrease posted for the first 11 months of 2015,” the DTI said.

The agency said the decline in merchandise exports last year was reflective of the export downtrend in neighboring Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) countries as well as the bigger regional market in Asia.

“Save for Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia, many trade-oriented countries in Asia suffered lower export volumes and values in 2015. Despite the regional downtrend in exports last year, the decline in merchandise exports in greater Asia and the Philippines has been decelerating, giving hope to many trade experts in Asia and the ASEAN that the export picture in the region is brightening,” the DTI said.

Senen Perlada, DTI director of the export marketing bureau, said they expect merchandise exports to get back on growth track this year, with electronics exports to post moderate growth while non-electronics could snap back with the waning effects of El Niño on agricultural production and exports.

“We also expect the robust services exports in 2015 to somewhat lift total exports to a lower single-digit figure. We also see a deceleration of the decline in the country’s goods exports to continue until the trend shifts to a growth path this year,” Perlada said.

Total exports in 2014 reached $86.9 billion, with goods accounting for 71 percent or $62.1 billion while services made up 21 percent at $24.8 billion.

The government was expecting exports to reach over $90 billion last year but growth was slowed down by the weakness in the global economy.

Trade Undersecretary Nora Terrado said the expected uptick in the performance of the country’s exports this year would also be driven by the strategies for export growth and development laid out in the recently signed Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2015-2017.

Under the PEDP, the DTI said merchandise exports are projected to grow between 5.4 percent to eight percent this year and between 6.7 percent to 10 percent next year.

Services exports, meanwhile, are estimated to increase between nine percent to 10.3 percent this year and between 9.9 percent to 12 percent in 2017.

Combined, total exports are seen to expand between 6.6 percent to 8.8 percent this year and between 7.7 percent to 10.6 percent next year.

The DTI, however, has expressed further optimism for exports to go beyond forecast, saying total exports could grow between eight to nine percent this year.

“The approval of the 2015-2017 Philippine Export Development Plan, a product of the close collaboration among government, the private sector, and academe, provides the direction and strategies to achieve merchandise and service export growth. We are especially keen on programs intended to tap new markets and new industries,” Terrado said. –Richmond Mercurio, Philstar