Why the Philippines can’t crush its deadly communist movement–even 50 Years later

Ralph Jennings, CONTRIBUTOR, Forbes, Mar 21, 2017

The Philippines is a democracy always being tested by violent anti-government rebel groups. You hear a lot about the well-armed Muslim fronts that want more autonomy in the majority Catholic country and don’t mind battling troops from Manila or slaying foreign tourists. But one of the most nagging rebel groups isn’t Muslim, it’s communist. It has 120 bases nationwide, per one estimate. It never quits fighting despite peace talks over the years following a decrease in ranks.

In a country where about a quarter of the 102 million people live in poverty with a lot more uncomfortably close to it, communism might offer the appeal of more equitable resource distribution. Meet the New People’s Army, a violent unit of the Communist Party of the Philippines. The communist army advocates overthrowing the government in favor of a state led by the vast working class. It gets the most support in rural areas with “high levels of poverty and social inequality,” including lack of land reform, says Carl Baker, director of programs at the think tank Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu.

But, no offense to their fledgling relations with China, Filipinos aren’t ardent communists. The Mao Zedong-inspired rebel group has stuck to the ever-chaotic Philippine rebel scene because of its geographic reach, fragmented organization and stubbornness by both sides during peace talks with the government. Violence has killed some 30,000 people since the New People’s Army formed in 1968.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte took on the guerrilla movement’s umbrella group the National Democratic Front as part of a crime-fighting agenda that has endeared him to a lot of citizens since he took office in June. He had calmed the communist army in his city Davao while mayor there for 22 years.

But Duterte is known for sudden shifts in position, such as trying to elbow out military aid from the United States and then letting a lot of it stay. In February the National Democratic Front and the government ended ceasefires that had been in effect through most of Duterte’s term so far. His defense secretary declared “all-out war” instead, saying the military could take care of the rebel group with its existing forces. The New People’s Army and another communist-linked front had negotiated with past presidents without a convincing deal.

Peace negotiations failed in February because the government wouldn’t release 400 political prisoners and stop moving in on rebel-held parts of the countries, Philippine media report. The government calls the New People’s Army a “terrorist group.” It ordered the arrest of rebel leaders involved in the peace talks. The communist army acts like Abu Sayyaf, the Muslim rebel group that kidnaps and sometimes kills foreigners in the country’s southwest, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has been quoted saying.

“Back-door talks” are going on now to rekindle formal ones, notes Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Philippine advocacy group Institute for Political and Electoral Reform. The two sides are scheduled to talk formally again in April, per this report.

But the New People’s Army has found about 1,000 new recruits in recent months as well, Casiple estimates. They would join 3,200 affiliated as of 2015. The figure is down from five-digit membership in the 1980s but enough to cause problems. Abu Sayyaf has just 400 core members but consistently eludes the government while keeping local communities happy with kidnapping ransom and killing foreign tourists who can’t raise funds.

The communist group is also so fragmented that some units work autonomously, says Jay Batongbacal, associate law professor at the University of the Philippines. A peace accord with the government might not convince every fragment, he says.

The war could easily just carry on. The communist group would still extort taxes from businesses in its strongholds, including rural areas of Luzon Island outside the capital Manila. Police officers would die. Communists would die. The New People’s Army sometimes targets politicians and U.S. service personnel in the Philippines as well to weaken the government, one commentary says.

“We don’t know now what’s going to happen,” says Antonio Montalvan, a newspaper columnist in the southern city Cagayan de Oro, which is on the same island where suspected members of the New People’s Army killed four police officers March 8. “There’s a possibility that the peace talks will come back or that the war will go on.”