Net ‘hot money’ outflow hit $460.8M as of June

By: Ben O. de Vera, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Jul 14, 2017

Despite a net inflow of hot money in June on the back of positive market sentiment, more foreign portfolio investments left the country at the end of the first half, resulting in a net outflow of $460.83 million.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data released yesterday showed that the $8.784-billion outflow of “hot money” as of end-June outpaced the $8.324-billion inflow.

The net outflow registered in the first half was a reversal of the $593.87-million net inflow in the same months last year.

The end-June inflows were also lower than the $8.509 billion a year ago, while the year-to-date outflows were higher than last year’s $7.915 billion.

In a statement, the BSP said the six-month net outflow was a result of “certain domestic and international developments, such as the US airstrike against Syria, global terrorist attacks, interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve, political turmoil in the US, and the closure order on several mining companies in the country.”

In June, a net inflow of hot money of $79.56 million was recorded, reversing the $24.35-million net outflow in May.

However, the net inflow in June was dwarfed by the $450.87-million net inflow in the same month last year.

Last month, inflows reached $2.016 billion, exceeding outflows of $1.937 billion.

The June inflows rose 11.4 percent from a year ago’s $1.81 billion. It was 35.8 percent higher than the $1.485 billion a month ago.

The BSP attributed the higher inflows of foreign portfolio investments last month to “positive investor sentiment relative to the anticipated resolution of the conflict in Marawi City, accelerated net foreign buying, and approval by Congress of the first tax reform package.”

The Duterte administration’s proposed first tax reform package aimed at slashing personal income tax rates while jacking up taxes on consumption was approved by the Lower House before Congress went on sine die adjournment last May. Meanwhile, the fighting between government forces and ISIS supporters in Marawi City that started also in May is still ongoing.

The outflows last June, meanwhile, climbed 42.5 percent from last year’s $1.359 billion as well as increased 28.3 percent from the previous month’s $1.509 billion “due to profit taking and investor reaction to the US Fed’s decision to increase interest rates,” the BSP explained.