PHL growth rates in past decade ‘improved’ under rebased NIA

By Cai Ordinario, Businessmirror, 21 Apr 2020

THE Philippines’s economic performance in the past 10 years showed an improvement using the rebased National Income Accounts (NIA) estimates released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Monday.

The latest PSA data showed growth averaged 6.38 percent in the past 10 years using a 2018-based NIA computation versus 6.3 percent using 2000-based data.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa told BusinessMirror that while real GDP growth rates are not that different compared to the 2000-based estimates, the differences were more pronounced in terms of growth rates.

“The base effect differences due to prices is obvious there,” Mapa said. “Real GDP growth rates, for base year 2018 and base year 2000, showed higher average growth rates during 2010 to 2019,” Mapa said.

With the rebasing and the ongoing coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, Mapa said GDP growth estimates for the first quarter will significantly be affected.

The PSA maintains that it can release the first quarter GDP figures on May 7. The estimates will already use 2018 prices.

“The GDP growth will surely be affected by the events re: lasted to Covid-19, the first quarter output measurement covers the month of March, half of the month is nder ECQ [enhanced community quarantine] already,” Mapa told
BusinessMirror.

Meanwhile, the latest estimates took into consideration not only the rebasing of prices but also the revision of the NIA. The country’s GDP now takes into consideration emerging industries particularly information and communication.

The new NIA also highlighted industries such as accommodation and food service activities; education; and human health and social work activities.

The revisions also considered highlighted demand commodities such as valuables and highlighted import and export commodities.

“Why revise and rebase? To capture changes/trends in the current economic structure such as the digitization of the economy [e.g., Grab, Airbnb, Big data]; rise of global production networks and buying chains; [and] agglomeration economies—firms and institutions locating close together,” the PSA said in a primer.

PSA said these changes will also make the NIA more responsive to the needs of stakeholders and
policy-makers in relation to the Philippine Development Plan, AmBisyon 2040, and sustainable development goals.

In terms of current 2018 prices, GDP growth between 2010 and 2019 averaged 8.82 percent. This is also higher than the average of 8.79 percent GDP growth in current 2000 prices.

Data showed the highest GDP growth rate, using constant 2018 prices, was in 2010 when GDP reached 7.3 percent. In the 2000-based GDP estimates, the growth rate in 2010

The slowest growth was in 2011 when GDP reached 3.9 percent under the 2018-based NIA. In the 2000-based NIA, GDP in 2011 was at 3.7 percent.

Meanwhile, comparing average GDP growth in the past 20 years, the 2018-based estimates were also higher at 5.5 percent than the 2000-based estimates at 5.4 percent.

Growth estimates, however, were lower during the period in the 2018-based estimates for Industry at 5.2 percent, compared to the 5.4 percent estimate using 2000-based prices.

Industry subsectors Mining and Quarrying as well as Manufacturing also saw lower estimates using 2018 prices at 6.5 percent and 4.5 percent versus 2000 prices at 8.5 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively.

Services subsectors such as wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, education, human health and social work activities and other services also saw lower growth estimates under the 2018-based NIA compared to the 2000-based data.

Using the 2018-based NIA, the PSA said the country’s full-year GDP reached P19.37 trillion in 2019. This is significantly higher than the P9.75 trillion estimate using 2000-based prices.