UP profs propose longer lockdown

by Franz Lewin, Manila Times, 23 Apr 2020

A group of professors from the University of the Philippines (UP) proposed a “sectoral approach” on the lifting of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Luzon.

The team, composed of Orville Jose Solon, Toby Monsod, Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Emmanuel de Dios, Joseph Capuno, Renato Reside Jr., Ma. Joy Abrenica, Agustin Arcenas, Ma. Christina Epetia, Laarni Escresa, Karl Jandoc, Cielo Magno and Carlo Irwin Panelo, recommended “intermittent but limited lockdowns” as a policy tool for local and national public health authorities that can be wielded when necessary.

“Here we propose principles and parameters for how supply chains can be unbundled and organized by sector and quarantine restrictions lifted accordingly, at the same time providing authorities with regular and reliable information on the behavior of the disease on the ground,” the group said in their paper titled “A Sectoral View of Lifting the Lockdown and the Use of Sample-based Random Testing,” which was obtained by The Manila Times.

The economics experts assumed that the lockdown could be a “stable long-term scenario” that might occur “only 18 months from now” when a vaccine is expected to be available.

They also identified sectors along two dimensions, “high” or “low,” based on how the sectors sustain the economy over the next year and a half, and their potential contribution to the spread of the coronavirus.

The paper said goods and services involved in the supply chains for food and essential goods, as well as occupations involved in public works, private construction and business process outsourcing (BPOs) are considered “high” sectors, while the remaining ones are considered “low.”

The paper also points out those “high-risk” spreader occupations, such as those involved in logistics and transportation networks, food distribution and retail networks, hotel and restaurant, and other entertainment/retail networks (malls, theaters, casinos). Other occupations would be “low-risk” spreaders.

The group is proposing the lifting of the restriction on movement for family subsistence agriculture workers, excluding those 60 years old and/or with comorbidities.

It also proposed mandatory basic safety measures like physical distancing, wearing face masks, coughing manners and handwashing.

Constraint movement for workers in food and agricultural production, banking and finance institutions, telecommunications, and BPOs should be lifted as well, provided that basic safety measures and periodic sample-based random testing should be implemented.

Meanwhile, establishments such as malls, theaters, resorts, casinos, schools and educational institutions should remain closed, the group suggested.

The group said movements from the logistics and transport networks, food distribution and retail networks including public markets and restaurants; private security and public/construction works will also be lifted but will be required to do regular sample-based testing.

Dine-in services should remain prohibited, and work-from home arrangements should be maintained until a vaccine or cure is available, it added.