Salceda seeks ‘targeted’ reopening of economy

By Jovee Marie de la Cruz, Businessmirror, 30 Jun 2020

A pickup truck loaded with bicycles is seen on Roxas Boulevard in Manila. As the country seeks to get its economy back on track after the devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, bicycle use—which perceptibly became more popular during the lockdowns—is being encouraged as a way to avoid unsafe crowding on trains and buses.

THE chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means has appealed to the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) for a “targeted” reopening of the economy.

Albay Rep. Joey Salceda issued the appeal as the Palace weighs on changes to the quarantine regime by June 30.

“There are things that reopening the economy cannot do without: safe public transport, safe offices with minimum health standards, and reliable telecommunications service for those working from home. We have to take them into account,” Salceda said.

“That means, we may have to allow provincial buses around Metro Manila to operate. We will also need to rationalize restrictions on transport. For instance, it might not make sense to distinguish between ‘modern’ and ‘regular’ jeepneys,” he said.

The lawmaker said the task force should also consider whether there are checkpoints and other mobility restrictions that could be rationalized.

“Those who go home late from work, traveling from one province to another, may need relevant exemptions. So, we should check the list of people eligible for IATF passes, for possible expansion,” he said.

According to Salceda, the economic stimulus will not work if there is no basic economic machinery to fuel it.

Earlier, Salceda said both houses of Congress are eyeing to pass the second stimulus package before the State of the Nation Address of President Duterte next month.

He said a special session may be called for the finalization and approval of these economic stimulus packages within the next two weeks.

Congress is planning to approve the stimulus package in three tranches with the last tranche to be inserted under the 2021 national budget.

Salceda said the House will adopt the Senate P140 billion counterpart bill to Accelerated Recovery and Investments Stimulus for the Economy of the Philippines (ARISE). If ever, this version will be the second stimulus package as Congress considered the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act as the first stimulus package.

This second stimulus is expected to be implemented up to September of this year.

Salceda also said the House leadership is now considering the Executive department’s “openness” to a third tranche of economic stimulus by July. He said this recovery measure can include around P280 billion. The target implementation of this third stimulus is being eyed on the fourth quarter of this year, and may be included in the 2021 national budget.

Salceda, who is principal author of the House’s economic stimulus program, said available economic support from the government should also be “widely communicated and available online.”

“I have submitted to President Duterte a framework for a risk-stratified reopening of the economy some weeks ago. That is an analysis of the costs and benefits, and the geographic and sector-based nuances of reopening regional economies. I believe these nuances will be taken into account,” Salceda said.

“Many restaurants and establishments that will reopen will need the loans, permits, and other forms of government support that are available. My office has done a rapid audit of these processes, and apparently, most are still not available online,” he added.

Salceda also said the area’s capacity to cure and isolate infected citizens is the greatest hedge against the risks of reopening an economy.

“The greater that capacity is, the more room you have for reopening the economy,” he said.

“All workplaces, as much as possible, should collect information on the regular contacts and the routes of all employees. This is what I call proactive contact tracing. By the time someone is confirmed as infected, we will already have had leads for faster contact tracing. Of course, time is of the essence in fighting contagions,” said Salceda, who is also the co-chairman of the Economic Stimulus and Recovery Cluster of the House Defeat Covid-19 Committee.

In his 76-page Let the Economy Barrel Through report submitted to the President, Salceda recommended a pandemic management approach that “foresees Covid-19 uncertainties so that we could begin managing them even before they happen” and emphasizes the need for innovations in mass testing and tracing.

“Confidence, especially the lack of it, is the underlying driver of markets-in-crisis. By identifying potentially troublesome scenarios, the paper also hopes to limit the uncertainty surrounding Covid-19. When the citizenry is convinced that public and private institutions are prepared for even the worst possible eventualities, they may become more confident to live as productively as possible under ‘new normal’ conditions,” Salceda said.

Salceda’s paper also identified seven potential events that should be anticipated and prepared for.

Salceda calls uncertainties around these scenarios as “six-sigma events,” a concept the lawmakers says he learned in his Master’s degree in Management from the Asian Institute of Management (AIM).

He said six-sigma events are dramatic deviations from expected outcomes, which, “are the expected number of cases given our trend lines.”

“The seven potential scenarios the paper identifies and recommends measures for are: multiple waves of infection, a significant rise in cases due to the reopening of the economy, cases of reinfection, lack of clear and viable guidance from international health institutions, cases overshooting certain facilities, waves of infection due to migration within and from outside the country, outbreaks from places of gathering such as schools and churches,” Salceda’s paper cited.

“The sooner we can identify these six-sigma events, and the sooner we can manage them systematically, the more and more engines of the economy we can allow to keep running. In this case, then, health emergency management is the most fundamental element of economic stimulus,” he added.

Salceda also proposed a “unifying paradigm” for pandemic management, which would include mass testing and tracing, effective isolation as more useful than mobility restrictions, innovation in testing and tracing, clear policy triggers, and a systems-based approach to work arrangements, transportation, and other aspects of daily life under the new normal.

“As a unifying paradigm, in general, [1] mass testing and tracing is absolutely necessary, [2] isolating the sick and potentially infected is much more efficient, and much less socially disruptive that total limits on mobility, so mass testing and tracing capacity is where the economy will largely rise or fall, [3] where resources are constrained, innovative approaches such as group testing should be explored, [4] all policy and protocol questions should be anticipated and policy triggers and expected behaviors should be codified and communicated well, and [5] as a matter of precautionary principle, systems should be established such that, even when individual human behavior falls short, the overall pandemic management strategy will hold,” Salceda’s paper explains.