The inevitable recession: PH expected to go through 4 quarters of slump

Published by rudy Date posted on June 12, 2020

By: Ben O. de Vera, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 12 Jun 2020

The Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF) expects the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink year-on-year for all four quarters of 2020 and end the year with a 3-percent contraction amid the uncertainties caused by the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

IIF associate economist Yuanliu Hu told the Inquirer that GDP contraction would be “most severe” in the second quarter, which covered the months of April and May when the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ)—said to be one of the most stringent lockdowns in the region—was imposed and put a halt to 75 percent of the economy.

“We further lowered our forecast because first-quarter data already showed substantial weakness, and the longer-than-expected lockdown will be challenging for the economy,” Hu said.

The IIF initially projected the Philippines could eke out a 1-percent growth this year and would be among a few economies in the region to post positive growth. Updating its forecast, Hu said the IIF expected “private consumption and investment will contribute most to the contracted growth this year.”

After the Philippine economy shrank by 0.2 percent during the first quarter, Hu said the IIF projected the three succeeding quarters to also contract—4.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, 4 percent in the third quarter, and 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

“I don’t expect rebound will be so rapid. Even if the [pandemic] is controlled to some extent, consumption and investment will not return to the precrisis level anytime soon,” Hu said, noting all major Southeast Asian economies would maintain negative growth throughout the year.

While some economists see modest growth by the fourth quarter, Hu said base effects may prevent the Philippines from achieving positive GDP growth by year-end as the fourth quarter of last year “was quite good”—growing 6.7 percent year-on-year.

“Looking forward, the speed of reopening the economy is very important for growth. If there is a second wave of outbreaks, the situation will definitely be worse,” Hu warned.

The Philippine economy is expected to return to growth by 2021. Hu estimated a 7.5-percent growth, as “the pandemic’s negative effect ease, domestic consumption and investment rebound, and trade activities return back to normal.”

July 2025

Nutrition Month
“Give us much more than P50 increase
for proper nutrition!”

Invoke Article 33 of the ILO Constitution
against the military junta in Myanmar
to carry out the 2021 ILO Commission of Inquiry recommendations
against serious violations of
Forced Labour and Freedom of Association protocols.

Accept National Unity Government (NUG)
of Myanmar.  Reject Military!

#WearMask #WashHands #Distancing #TakePicturesVideosturesVideos

Time to support & empower survivors. Time to spark a global conversation. Time for #GenerationEquality to #orangetheworld!

July


3 July – International Day of Cooperatives
3 Ju
ly – International Plastic Bag Free Day
 
5 July –
World Youth Skills Day 
7 July – Global Forgiveness Day
11 July – World Population Day 
17 July – World Day for
International Justice
28 July – World Nature Conservation Day
30 July – World Day against Trafficking in Persons 


Monthly Observances:

Schools Safety Month

Nutrition Month
National Disaster Consciousness Month

Weekly Observances:

Week 2: Cultural Communities Week
Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise
Development Week
Week 3: National Science and
Technology Week
National Disability Prevention and
Rehabilitation Week
July 1-7:
National Culture Consciousness Week
July 13-19:
Philippines Business Week
Week ending last Saturday of July:
Arbor Week

 

Daily Observances:

First Saturday of July:
International Cooperative Day
in the Philippines

Categories

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.