Economists: Govt miscalculated in loosening mobility restrictions

By CAI ORDINARIO, Businessmirror, 22 Mar 2021

THE President’s economic team may have miscalculated the situation when they recommended loosening mobility restriction in their bid to boost the economy, according to economists.

On top of this, economists who spoke to the BusinessMirror said there were many issues in the implementation of the quarantine restrictions as well as the arrival of new Covid-19 variants which eventually caused the spike.

Over the weekend, the Department of Health (DOH) reported there were 15,756 new Covid-19 cases in the Philippines. This included the 7,999 recorded last Saturday and the 7,757 cases reported last Sunday.

“Government miscalculation is a generous description at this point — it presumes they are even attempting the math,” Ateneo de Manila University School of Government Dean Ronald U. Mendoza told the BusinessMirror in an interview last Sunday.

“All earlier indicators and forecasts suggested systems were still not ready even after a year of lockdown. They need the humility to ask the private sector and academia for help,” he added.

Action for Economic Reforms (AER) Coordinator Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III explained to the BusinessMirror that the efforts to loosen restrictions failed because the government was not effective in contact tracing and the referral system for Covid-19 patients was not functioning.

Sta. Ana added the following: government officials violated health protocols; the pronouncements from government officials provided a false sense of security encouraging more people to go out; and, the government lacked resources for relief or social amelioration.

He said there was also a failure of coordination among national government agencies and between central government and local government units. Sta. Ana said there was also divisiveness among Filipinos, which eroded collective action.

“They miscalculated the risk of the variant in a community waiting to be vaccinated but eager to step out from restrictions. They overestimated the trend of falling cases before this spike,” former University of the Philippines School of Economics Dean Ramon L. Clarete also told the BusinessMirror on Sunday.

Sans science, data

FOUNDATION for Economic Freedom (FEF) President Calixto V. Chikiamco told the BusinessMirror that the economic team made their decisions “without science and data.”

Chikiamco also said the government made decisions while they were “oblivious of their own management of the pandemic.”

University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) School of Economics Dean Cid L. Terosa told the BusinessMirror that the economic team miscalculated the estimate because of the issues surrounding the arrival of the vaccines.

“I think the government miscalculated the loosening of restrictions because the move was based on the assumption that issues related to the availability of vaccines could be resolved in due time,” Terosa said.

However, De La Salle University’s Maria Ella C. Oplas told the BusinessMirror that it was not only the economic team, but also Filipinos, who miscalculated the situation.

Oplas said many Filipinos lowered their guard because of the low cases recorded after Christmas which was initially thought to bring in a surge in Covid-19 cases.

The low cases post-Christmas, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (Acerd) Director Alvin P. Ang said this is one of the reasons why he thinks the economic team did not miscalculate their recommendation.

“To me science, governance and economics must work together. I can only speak of the economic side so it will not be enough,” Ang said. “Science should explain that; and if governance can implement that, and if the economy can absorb that.”

Quarantine needed

STA. Ana said whether Metro Manila residents like it or not, a quarantine is necessary. This is even without the government placing the megacity in quarantine.

While he admitted that a quarantine is “a blunt instrument,” it is necessary to prevent the further spread of Covid-19 and keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

Quarantine will also prevent contact tracing and referral systems to go into disarray. He said even successful countries in flattening the curve such as New Zealand and a number of European Union members had to adopt a lockdown.

In the next two weeks, Sta. Ana recommends that the government consolidate contact tracing and centralize the data. The data should be analyzed to trigger real-time action.

He added that it is necessary to put in place efficient referral systems for patients since the “One Hospital Command is dysfunctional.”

Sta. Ana said it is also important to adopt an aggressive fiscal policy to flatten the curve and provide social amelioration or relief to those negatively affected by the quarantine. He said the structural reforms that were recently put in place will ensure the country’s ability to repay its borrowings.

“We should not tolerate hubris as manifested by the presidential spokesman’s chest thumping. That is, boasting that government performance is ‘excellent’,” Sta. Ana told the BusinessMirror. “The current spike, if not contained, will make it immeasurably harder for us to implement an efficient and effective vaccination strategy.”

Other measures

HOWEVER, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua told the BusinessMirror that implementing an Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) would only worsen the plight of millions.

In a statement sent to reporters, Chua said 3.2 million people or 23 percent of National Capital Region (NCR) residents are hungry.

Chua added there were some 506,000 jobless Filipinos in NCR and the cost of the General Community Quarantine (GCQ) and nearby provinces reached P700 million in wages.

“The indicators above will be worse if (we implement an ECQ),” Chua told the BusinessMirror last Sunday.

Clarete agreed and said implementing an ECQ will be “disastrous” for the economy. However, it may be necessary if there is a spike in cases.

Instead of quarantines, Unionbank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said it may be time to consider what is called in Singapore as “circuit breakers” or “timeouts” that last for a week or two. This may be a quick and effective way to stop the surge in Covid-19 cases.

Clarete said the government should also step up efforts to fast track the vaccination and arrest vaccine fakers. The government should also “arrest violators of masking, social distancing, and congregating prohibition mandates.”

“It’s easy to criticize but vaccination is bungled by this government. Maraming gustong kumita [There are a lot of people who want to cash in],” Clarete said.

“Yes [vaccination is delayed] and the way it’s developing, there is an absence of a clear plan. (With this) fakers will come in to take advantage of the lack of strong leadership,” he added.

Step up

OPLAS said the private sector should also step up given that only temperature checks are being monitored. This means if some Filipinos enter their establishments with a cold or are coughing, these are not being monitored.

She also said it’s high time the government employed evidence-based approach, particularly in terms of the distribution of frontliners and vaccines.

Oplas added that LGUs should be able to identify the barangays or at least streets where the cases are located. This will prevent people from passing through or visiting these areas.

She also recommended that the geographical spread of Covid-19 should also be taken into consideration in the assignment of frontliners and vaccine distribution.

“Why prioritize 100 percent of the frontliners in areas with only one case? When can you allocate the 80 percent of the vaccine to areas where they are needed the most?” Oplas opined.

“At this point the key is devolution. Allow the local government to be on the forefront. Allow them to do by barangay or district lockdowns. Instead of another Metro Manila lockdown,” she added.

Chikiamco added that a change in leadership at the DOH is also in order as well as the implementation of the test, trace, and isolate strategy.

He added that the private sector should also be allowed to procure and vaccinate Filipinos.

“The best course of action for the government at this time, in my opinion, is to declare a state of emergency in specific areas and to hasten efforts to inoculate as many people as possible soonest,” Terosa said.

Government plan

CHUA said there is a need to continue managing risks as Covid cases rise. He said they want to do this by focusing on localized quarantines and addressing the sources of highest risk, so that the jobs/livelihood of the far majority will not be affected.

He said when the government decided to open the economy on October 12, 2020, cases did not spike. He added that there was no surge in cases during the year-end holidays and the first two months of 2021.

The National Economic and Development Authority official said there was even a downtrend in the number of infections recorded per day after Christmas.

He attributed this to strict compliance with health standards and a gradual and careful approach to reopening.

“The issue we face now is not economy versus health. It is the total health of the people, whether from Covid, non-Covid sickness, or hunger,” Chua said.