Failure of elections

By a vote of 11 to 3, the Supreme Court on Sept. 10 threw out the petition of a group called Concerned Citizens Movement to nullify the contract entered into by the Commission on Elections and the Smartmatic International and Total Information Management.

Said the Court: “The road…toward successful 2010 automat[ed] elections would certainly be rough and bumpy. The Comelec is laboring under very tight timelines. It would accordingly need the help of all advocates of orderly and honest elections, of all men and women of good will, to smoothen the way and assist Comelec personnel address the fears expressed about the integrity of the system…..

“The Comelec has adopted a rigid technical evaluation mechanism…to ensure compliance with the….minimum system capabilities….” The possibility of systems hacking is very slim since the PCOS [precinct count optical scan] machines are online for a minute or two when they transmit the results, the Court said, adding that it was satisfied with measures to secure the project.

Even in the worst case scenario that all 82,000 PCOS machines break down on Election Day, such events would not translate into failure of elections, the Court insisted, since the Comelec can resort to manual counting since PCOS still uses paper ballots. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, Sept. 11, 2009).

But suppose, not all, but, say, 20,000 PCOS machines break down or are made to break down on May 10, 2010, can the Comelec manage a credible manual count amid the ensuing confusion and bedlam? In time to declare the winners before June 30, when the tenure of the incumbent president and vice president officially ends?

If not, then we will have a problem. The next in line of succession would be the Senate President, who at present is Juan Ponce Enrile. But suppose, for some reason or other, JPE is not the Senate President by June 30, but someone else who is not so friendly to the Arroyo administration and who will not play along with the constituent assembly scenario integral to the GMA game plan? There would also be no Speaker of the House since the incumbent would be running for re-election as congressman. What then?

In his dissenting opinion, Justice Antonio Carpio wrote “The Comelec’s lack of experience in nationwide automation, its [un]familiarity with its chosen technology, the gaps in the security features of the system, the scale of its operation, Smartmatic’s control over the automation aspects…all combine to create a gaping black hole of unknown risks which can crash the untested system…

“If there is a failure of elections and no president and vice president are proclaimed, and no Senate President and Speaker of the House are chosen, by noon of June 30, 2010, a power vacuum is certain to emerge….” Inquirer, Sept. 14).

And who would fill that power vacuum? Almost certainly the military. Which elements in the military? Everyone seems to be convinced that PMA Class of 1978 would be the likely power group that will grab the power, since this class is said to control all key positions in the AFP, including Army Chief Lt. Gen. Delfin Bangit, who is expected to be named AFP chief-of-staff when the incumbent, Gen. Ibrado retires or is made to retire before the May 10 elections.

By ominous coincidence, President Gloria Arroyo happens to be an honorary member of PMA Class of 1978, whose class motto is “Makatarungan” (Honorable), than which a more inappropriate motto cannot be found.

I was told by an active brigadier general that if PMA Class of 1978 were to grab state power, most of the younger officers would stage a counter-coup against it. I was tempted to say “Tell that to the Marines,” until I realized that the Marines are also led by a PMA Class of 1978 alumnus, Maj. Gen. Juancho Sabban.

So the recent veiled warning of former President Fidel V. Ramos, who was formerly chief of the Philippine Constabulary and then AFP chief-of-staff, and then Secretary of National Defense, to those in the military planning an auto-golpe or palace coup to keep their honorary member in power beyond June 2010, is pregnant with foreboding.

Said President Ramos: “Those contemplating Palace coups or No-el scenarios in 2010 to preserve the status quo are hereby forewarned that these and variations thereof will surely fail because, among others, PMA Class of 1978, including its adopted members, does not command the loyalty of the vast majority of our uniformed services….”

That remains to be seen. One recalls that in mid-March, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Alexander Yano was rumored to be ready to announce withdrawal of the AFP’s support from President Arroyo, and Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno was rumored to announce the formation of a civilian-dominated revolutionary transition government.

But this did not materialize after Gen. Yano was offered ambassadorship to Brunei in exchange for his early retirement, leaving SC Chief Justice Puno holding a bag full of Moral Renewal and not much else. That seems to be all that it takes to take the wind out of the sail of the disgruntled military.

Oplan August Moon was supposed to be launched last Aug. 6 by Class 1978 to keep President Arroyo in power through a No-el scenario for 2010. This seems to have been the reason why CIA Director Leon Panetta made a sudden 12-hour visit to Manila in mid-July, and why President Arroyo’s much sought-after photo-op with President Barack Obama was suddenly moved from “end of the year” to July 30.

Both events were timed to prevent Oplan August Moon and to make sure the May 2010 elections proceed as planned.

So presidential elections will be held in May 2010, and there will be no attempt to extend President Arroyo’s presidential term or shift to parliamentary via consa.

But if there is failure of elections during the actual process, that cannot be laid on the door steps of Malacañang, so the thinking presumably goes, and even the Americans cannot allow the Philippines to be without a government for several months while the politicians debate endlessly and acrimoniously on what to do.

Enter Norberto Gonzales’ revolutionary transition government, allegedly supported by the military, the Churches, the business community, civil society, etc., with President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo determinedly in control.

Would President Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and CIA Director Panetta prefer chaos and anarchy? I doubt it, muses the ghost of Niccolo Machiavelli.

And who would stop them? Wishy-washy wimps in yellow shirts, sniffs the ghost of Ferdinand Marcos. Shoot them, orders the ghost of Fabian Ver.

That would be a Battle between Good and Evil.

Reactions to tonyabaya@gmail.com. Other articles in www.tapatt.net and in acabaya.blogspot.com –ANTONIO C. ABAYA, Manila Standard Today