‘Noynoy’ leads latest poll

44% for Aquino, says Pulse Asia in recent survey

If the elections were to be held today, the Liberal Party tandem of Senators Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd and Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd would win by big margins, results of a recent survey showed. Based on the results of the survey conducted by Pulse Asia last month, Aquino, the Liberal’s standard-bearer, led all presidential candidates with 44 percent of Filipinos expressing support for him.

Roxas, his vice presidential candidate, was preferred by almost four in 10 Filipinos—or 37 percent.

Far behind Aquino in the presidential race were Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. (19 percent), Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero (13 percent), and former President Joseph Estrada (11 percent).

In another survey conducted by the Social Weather Station (SWS), Aquino received more than a majority with 60 percent.

Clamor for clean governance

Pulse Asia said the clamor for clean governance was the top reason for Aquino’s strong support.

“The reason most-often cited in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is [Aquino’s] clean public record or, alternatively, not being corrupt,” Pulse Asia said in a statement.

Aquino has recorded few political achievements during his 11 years in Congress.

But he is immensely popular because of his mother, who led the “people power” revolution that ended dictator Ferdinand Marcos’s reign in 1986.

Across geographic areas and socioeconomic classes in the latest Pulse Asia survey, Aquino enjoys majority voter preferences in classes A, B and C (51 percent) and in the Visayas (53 percent).

Meanwhile, big pluralities of those in the rest of Luzon and Mindanao (both at 41 percent) and classes D and E (both at 44 percent), as well as a near majority of Metro Manila (47 percent), also prefer Aquino.

Chipping away at past leaders

Pulse Asia reported that “with Senator Aquino joining the presidential race, the other personalities who used to be in the lead experienced a decline in their voter preferences.”

“Between August and October 2009, the biggest drop in electoral support is recorded by Vice President Noli de Castro [minus 12 percentage points].”

The voter preferences of Villar and former President Estrada also declined during this period (minus 6 percentage points and minus 8 percentage points, respectively), according to Pulse Asia.

Pulse Asia also said that “the reason most-often cited in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is the latter’s clean public record or, alternatively, not being corrupt.”

Palace officials optimistic

Malacañang, meanwhile, belittled former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro’s poor showing in latest Pulse Asia survey, saying his ratings would improve once he hits the campaign trial.

Teodoro was preferred by a mere 2 percent of the respondents.

His dismal ratings came even after he took a high-profile role leading disaster relief efforts for two deadly storms that hit the Philippines from late September and claimed more than 1,100 lives.

“We believe Secretary Gibo’s only problem is his lack of exposure and people’s awareness of him,” said Gabriel Claudio, referring to Teodoro by his nickname. Claudio is the presidential adviser for political affairs.

On the contrary, Claudio said that Teodoro’s poor showing was “mainly due to his sense of propriety and inhibition not to project himself as candidate and politician while still in DND [Department of National Defense].”

“He even refused to take advantage of the recent calamities to gain publicity and media mileage,” Claudio added. “Now that he has stepped down from the DND. We expect him to be able to maximize his exposure as a political contender.”

Once people hear and get to know him, Teodoro would have no problem connecting with them and impressing them as “the best, brightest and most qualified among the presidentiables,” Claudio said.

Vice-presidential race

In the vice presidential race, Roxas led other possible candidates for the position: Sen. Loren Legarda (23 percent), Mayor Jejomar Binay of Makati City (13 percent) and Vice President de Castro (11 percent).

Roxas also topped in several geographic areas and socioeconomic classes (32 percent to 49 percent).

“In [the] Balance of Luzon and Mindanao, however, his lead over Sen. Loren Legarda [32 percent versus 25 percent and 33 percent versus 28 percent, respectively] is a marginal one, i.e. within the sample’s margin of error. Statistically speaking, the two vice presidential hopefuls could have nearly the same level of voter preferences in these two areas,” Pulse Asia explained.

The balance of Luzon refers to all regions on the main island, except Metro Manila (National Capital Region).

Senatorial candidates

Meanwhile, in the senatorial race, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada led the list of probable winners, according to the survey.

Estrada (46.7 percent) is followed by Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago (42.4 percent), former Senate President Franklin Drilon (38.6 percent), Sen. Pia Cayetano (37.2 percent), Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr. (36.6 percent), Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (36.6 percent), Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd (36.3 percent), Sen. Jamby Madrigal (31.6 percent), lawyer Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel (31.4 percent), former Sen. Ralph Recto (30.6 percent), former Sen. Sergio Osmeña 3rd (28.5 percent), Chairman Vicente “Tito” Sotto 3rd of the Dangerous Drugs Board (28.2 percent), television game show host Willie Revillame (27.4 percent), and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6 percent).

It was not clear why Roxas was included in the survey of senatorial preferences when he had already declared he would run for vice president more than a month before the survey was conducted. Incumbent Senators Richard Gordon and Lito Lapid were outside the so-called Magic 12. Gordon has declared his availability to run for president, while Lapid said he would run for governor of Pampanga.

Pulse Asia said that “with more media attention currently being devoted to the presidential and vice-presidential contests, the level of public interest in the senatorial race appears to have declined between August and October 2009.”

“Three months ago, 57 percent of Filipinos already had a complete senatorial line-up for the May 2010 elections, but now fewer Filipinos [40 percent] report having a complete senatorial list. And while Filipinos were naming a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored senatorial candidates back in August 2009, the mean figure is now down to eight while the median figure has declined to nine,” the survey added.

The Pulse Asia October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey was conducted from October 22 to 30, 2009 using face-to-face interviews of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above.

The survey has a nationwide error margin of plus or minus 2 percent and regional margins of error of plus
or minus 6 percent for Metro Manila, (plus or minus 4 percent for the rest of Luzon and plus or minus 5 percent for Visayas and Mindanao).

Pulse Asia said its Ulat ng Bayan surveys were conducted “on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.” –ROMMEL C. LONTAYAO REPORTER WITH REPORTS FROM ANGELO S. SAMONTE, EFREN L. DANAO AND AFP