Manila Standard survey : 3 poll

SURVEYS are like photographs; they capture only moments in time. But then pictures can express a thousand things, and when placed one after another, they can tell stories.

The Manila Standard Today Poll has captured three snapshots so far of the presidential race in November 2009, December 2009 and January 2010. With the campaign period about to begin, a story is starting to unfold.

Less than two weeks before the official start of the campaign period, Senators Benigno Aquino III and Manuel Villar Jr., the frontrunners in the presidential race, are locked in a statistical dead heat at 36 percent to 34 percent.

Data in the major areas give telltale signs, and data by region provide further information.

Aquino’s share of the votes decreased by 10 points, with significant declines in Northern and Central Luzon (great drop in Region 3) and in the Visayas (huge drop in Region 7).

The votes for Villar increased 7 points, with a considerable rise in the Visayas (especially in Region 7).

The poor (Class D) represent 68 percent of the vote nationwide, and is a critical base.

In December 2009, 46 percent of the voters went for Aquino and only 27 percent went for Villar. By January 2010, Aquino’s votes had tapered to 37 percent while Villar’s had improved to 34 percent. When you couple this with Aquino’s eroded base among the upper and middle classes (51 percent to 38 percent) and the very poor (45 percent to 32 percent), and Villar’s vote increases across the board, a neck-and-neck race looms.

There are also revealing results by age group. The youth groups with ages ranging from 18 to 34 used to be Aquino’s turf, with 46 percent and 43 percent vote shares in December 2009.

But this was no longer the case in January 2010, with only 38 percent and 35 percent going for Aquino in these respective age groups.

Villar, on the other hand, gathered up votes in these sectors, with a significant climb among those aged 18 to 24 from 29 percent to 41 percent.

Analyzing the core vote of the candidates may also help explain the statistical draw between Aquino and Villar. Aquino suffered a decline in core voters from 24 percent in December 2009 to 17 percent in January 2010, while Villar had a slight increase of core voters from 14 percent to 17 percent. The total votes up for grabs increased to 53 percent in January from 48 percent in December 2009.

There was also a significant movement on what voters perceive as the most effective means to convince them.

News about candidates aired on TV, TV commercials or advertisements, and stories of personal visits in their places of residence are still considered the best means of making them aware of a candidate’s position and advocacies.

The candidates’ participation in discussions and debates showed an uptick nationwide, from 28 percent in December 2009 to 33 percent in January 2010. The increase in the preference for debates and discussions among candidates were most evident in Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao.

The January 2010 Standard poll also tested for resonance some of the slogans that presidential aspirants had used. The results reveal that all voters liked the tested slogans.

What is noteworthy about the results is that when the degree of liking a slogan is ranked according to the percentage of voters saying they like the slogan, “Sipag at Tiyaga” tops the list. “Tunay at Tapat na Nagmamahal sa Masang Pilipino” ranks second. In third to fifth places are “Galing at Talino,” “Pagbabagong Kailangan sa ating Bagumbayan,” and “Tanggalin ang Tiwali. Itama ang Mali. Laban na Tapat. Laban ng Lahat” The last place was held by the slogan “Bagong Pilipinas, Bagong Pilipino.”

The January poll also looked at the issues hounding some presidential aspirants.

The respondents were asked whether a presidential candidate should not be voted for or should still be voted for given specific issues raised against them, without naming any names.

When the percent saying “should no longer vote for this candidate” is ranked from highest to lowest, the following are in the top 5, in this order: 1. If allegedly involved in murder; 2. If being labeled as autistic; 3-4. If reported to be allegedly involved in anomalous projects; 5. If reported as having mistress or mistresses.

Tabulated against voter preferences, the issues do not appear to be making any dents or changes in vote shares and rankings. As of now, voters may say one should no longer vote for such a candidate, but this won’t affect how they vote.

We have yet to see what will happen as the campaign period takes off in the weeks ahead.

In the coming weeks and months, the changing landscape of the 2010 presidential race will unfold and the Manila Standard Today Poll will be there taking photographs.

The results of the Manila Standard Today Poll and The Laylo Report can be accessed online at http://mstpoll.wordpress.com. Questions, comments can be sent via e-mail to mstpoll@gmail.com. –Pedro Laylo Jr., Manila Standard Today