Only five Senate seats up for grabs

The last Commission on Elections (Comelec) list of senatorial candidates that I saw had 59 names in it. With only 12 Senate seats up for grabs, the candidacies of 47 of the listed candidates will be unsuccessful. Who will end up in the 12-candidate winning circle will depend upon a trio of factors.

The first of these factors, clearly, is reelectionist status. A reelectionist has by far the best chance of winning an election among candidates. A reelectionist is always in the public eye and almost everything that he does or says is reported by the media. Thus, during the course of the campaign and — more important — on election day a reelectionist is very much in the consciousness of most voters.

Another factor upon which landing in the Senate winning circle depends is name recall. A candidate does not need to be a reelection-seeking incumbent to enjoy name recall. A candidate who has served in the Senate or some other high government post, or is a show-business personality or is otherwise often in the public eye will enjoy name recall when the voter prepares to cast his automated vote.

The third factor that can spell the difference between a candidate’s landing and his not landing among the Lucky 12 is fame and celebrity arising from some singular achievement or achievements in business, the arts, religion or some other major sector of Philippine society.

On the basis of these three factors, it is possible to say that of the 12 Senate seats that will be up for grabs on May 10, seven already have sure takers. Thus, 52 candidates will be fighting for only five seats in the upper chamber of the 15th Congress.

Five of the six virtually-sure winners are reelectionists. They are, in alphabetical order, Pia Cayetano, Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada, Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. and Miriam Santiago. Senators Cayetano, Enrile, Estrada and Santiago have conducted themselves well during their stay in the upper chamber and have made significant contributions to the Senate’s work. Senator Revilla has made little contribution to the Senate’s work, but because of his show-business popularity, he seems destined to win.

But a showbiz persona is no guarantee of victory and if a showbiz senator — the Senate has had quite a few showbiz members since Rogelio de la Rosa — has been a non-performer, the Filipino people will take due note of that fact. Manuel “Lito” Lapid’s six years in the Senate have been a waste of the people’s money and the Senate’s time. I’m prepared to wager that I think the former action star will not win reelection.

Name recall will be responsible for the two other Senate seats that are already taken. I believe that on the basis of name recall and their good performances as senators, Franklin Drilon and Sergio Osmeña III are virtually certain to be returned to the upper chamber by the electorate. Franklin Drilon was a good Senate president, and he will always be remembered as the man who, as the Senate’s presiding officer, demanded the resignation of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo upon the disclosure of the existence of wiretapped “Hello Garci” calls she made to Commission on Elections official Virgilio “Garci” Garcillano.

The grandson and namesake of the second President of the Commonwealth, Serge Osmeña went about his senatorial duties with dignity, dedication and honor. In perhaps the only display of principle during the present electoral reason, Osmeña at first refused to join the Liberal Party senatorial slate because of the inclusion therein of former Sen. Ralph Recto and his wife, Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos, have been staunch supporters of Gloria Arroyo. I think that Filipino voters will, on May 10, reward Serge Osmeña’s good record with a fresh term in the Senate.

Going for Franklin Drilon and Serge Osmeña, in addition to name recall and their good public records, is the fact that they hail from provinces with very large voting populations. The name Osmeña is virtually synonymous with this country’s most populous province, Cebu, and Cebuanos are fiercely loyal when one of their native sons is gunning for a national office. In addition, Serge Osmeña is an Ilonggo on his mother’s side. Frank Drilon comes for another populous province, Iloilo, which, together with vote-rich Negros Occidental, make up almost the entire Ilonggo-speaking region of the Philippines.

Name recall works for a candidate public-office background only if voters perceive him or her to be possessed of a meritorious record of public service judging from the failure of their previous candidates, the electorate did not believe that Ralph Recto and Vicente “Tito” Sotto III deserved to be rewarded with renewed senatorial mandates.

Pia Cayetano, Drilon, Juan Ponce Enrile, Osmeña, Revilla Jr. and Miriam Santiago —these men and women are, in my view, virtually certain to be among the entries on the membership list of the Senate of the incoming Congress.

The rest of the pack of candidates — 52 men and women — will be furiously fighting over five seats. That means that at the end of the exercise, 47 candidates for the Senate in the 2010 election will go home empty-handed.

Who are likely to win the five seats? That will be subject of a subsequent column. –Rudy Romero, Daily Tribune

(My e-mail address is rudy_v_romero@yahoo.com)