Ephemeral euphoria

Knowing the Philippines well, I’d say Senator Benigno Aquino III faces an impossible task.

He based his campaign on a moral revolution, a return to honesty and decency in government. The people voted for him because they wanted it too. The sympathy they felt for his mother that they transferred to him only added to that. Mind you , “the people” were only 42 percent, there were still 58 percent who thought differently. But the 58 percent was a split vote, 26.7 percent for Joseph Estrada, 15.2 percent for Manuel Villar, 11.2 percent for Gilbert Teodoro and 4.9 percent for others. So the strongest support was for his message. People want an honest government.

The trouble is, how will he do it? The corrupt and corrupted systems (there is a difference) are far too firmly entrenched. If he pushes for a clean government too early he’ll almost certainly fail, and his presidency will never recover. But if he does too little while he still has the ascendancy and the support of a large swathe of the populace behind him, he’ll never achieve anything substantive sometime later.

Caught between a rock and a hard place indeed. I don’t envy him. Nor do I see a workable solution short of a dictatorship, and Philippine history does not look kindly on that one.

The problem is how to deal with a Congress that has no intention of changing its ways. And if Gloria Arroyo becomes speaker, it will be even tougher. Her disruptive influence will undoubtedly continue. Sonny Belmonte would be a much more supportive House leader. Aquino should be using his early public strength to push this outcome. Jojo Binay could help Aquino here as he has the political skills to know how to deal with Congress.

But even with support from the House and a possibly supportive Senate (Frank Drilon or Kiko Pangilinan instead of Villar), Aquino will not get change through. The political system is not prepared to change in the way society expects.

On just one small issue: pork barrel, Aquino is going to have to work out a way to deal with it. As I see it, he has three options:

1.Reluctantly go along with it in the recognition that nothing will get done if he doesn’t continue it. And gradually encourage support for some reform. After all, it gets a lot of attention, but is not all that big in the overall scheme of things—only 1.8 percent of the budget. Let them have their way if they give you yours.

2.Agree to the pork barrel, but re-direct it to funding education only until education is fully provided for in all its facets (classrooms, desks, books, pencils, uniforms, meals, better teacher pay, computers, playgrounds, sports equipment. The list is endless). Then, and only after all that is finished, roads and bridges. At fixed costs based on known standards.

3.Take the Congress head on. Allow politicians to recommend projects to Neda who will take their recommendation into their assessment when prioritizing projects —and give some weight to it. This will put Aquino into a war with the trapos—but, then, that’s what he promised the voting public: true, genuine reforms.

Wherever he looks the system will defeat change unless he can find some miracle way to revolutionize society in the massive way needed. One small example, putting some well-known top tax cheats in jail would work wonders. But the system will defeat any efforts to achieve it. Just look at it, the Marcoses were kicked out for flagrant corruption, and instead of being in jail, three of them are now in political positions. Imelda, who so blatantly had far more shoes and jewelry than her husband could ever have legitimately afforded, is now a congresswoman. Every court case against her has failed. What chance anyone else of power and pelf going to jail? None. When the occasional one was they were treated with kid gloves. Jalosjos had a house built especially for him in jail. He also enjoyed cable TV, a personal refrigerator, queen-size bed and hot-and-cold shower, among others.

So even if Aquino goes after big crooks, they’ll pay their way out.

Aquino has the right idealism but you can’t beat the system. Ask Governors Grace Padaca and Ed Panlilio who did major clean-ups only to get decimated by the system a scant 3 years later. What Aquino can do is get it started, a few small steps that the next several leaders can progress—or regress—if they so choose.

He could institute radical reform, but only if he establishes a dictatorship. Marcos realized this, a brilliant leader who could have done a Lee Kuan Yew. Instead he chose to emulate Joseph Stalin. He let the financial greed of himself and his family and friends the better of him. Arroyo, too, instituted what was essentially dictatorial control, but for personal aggrandizement—not the national good. Aquino could do it and get large public support if he kept it clean. It would be a huge risk, it’s what his mother tried in a gentle way that didn’t work because of that very gentleness.

Philippine presidents have enormous power, in part because they can violate the Constitutional restrictions with impunity if they so choose. And as Arroyo so blatantly proved. But Congress is also a power a president must deal with. A frivolous impeachment case can succeed if Congress so decides. Only the Supreme Court can, perhaps, overrule it. But that’s by no means clear. So a Philippine president must pander to Congress unless he can get public opinion so strongly behind him that Congress wouldn’t dare oppose. It’s a tough thing to achieve.

Ramos struck the right balance and got things done, but cleaning up the corrupted systems needed more than six years. Estrada let the gains slip away and Arroyo deliberately hastened their demise. The 39th most corrupt country in the world (out of 180 nations surveyed), one of the worst in Asia tells it. Reversing that is a Herculean task, one Aquino must face and begin to resolve, or be declared a failure when history evaluates. I wonder if he can do it.

Ramos was successful in executing change because he was an experienced leader and manager. Equally important was the fact that he recognized the importance of obtaining Congress’ support. He had frequent and regular meetings with congress—the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council—Arroyo let it fade away. Aquino must revive the concept and the regularity.

He must also regularly meet with sector leaders —and listen seriously to them. In my area, that’s businessmen. We don’t know him but we create the jobs that get people out of poverty, he needs us on his side. He needs to get our confidence in him and his administration. He will do it quickest by interacting.

And that’s true for all other sectors. Aquino must interact personally with them. He said he would not isolate himself so let’s hope he doesn’t get seduced by the Palace’s pleasures and does go home at night. It’s a seemingly innocuous, but important action: stay among the people. The power for reform will emanate from the people, not from the politicians—who want status quo, where they are comfortable, and comfortably off.

If Aquino is honest in his statements of fundamental reform, not scrabbling ineffectually at the edges, he will enlist the people behind him. Their massed power, if properly harnessed, can be stronger than any politician’s.

Aquino is going to find it an almost impossible job. Congress will resist him, and he does not have the political skills (as Arroyo did) to control them—this is a compliment. The way to get their acquiescence is through the people, and through the business community whose decisions decide how the economy will progress—or not. Congress will be forced to listen. Spending money on professional PR as long as it’s on issues not aggrandizement of people will be money wisely spent.

Amid the euphoria of winning, about-to-be President Aquino might want to keep fixed in his mind that he won because the people are sick of trapo leadership, of corruption, of dishonesty, of the dynastic systems and leadership selfishness that have brought the Philippines to the bottom of the Asian heap.

If he betrays that faith the people have given him his mother will be turning in her grave, and his father will have given his life in vain. –Peter Wallace, Manila Standard Today

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