Guarded optimism for P-Noy’s inaugural

A prominent money manager advised me over dinner last week that I should start buying good equity issues now because the inaugural of P-Noy will surely improve market sentiment for at least six months… assuming no catastrophe in European and US markets happens in the meantime. That sounds like good advice because even now, people from all levels of society seem to be feeling good about our prospects as the new administration assumes power.

Writing for the New York based Global Source, economist Romeo Bernardo agrees with the money manager about the general feeling of optimism. “The Philippine growth story seems to be in line with that of other Asian economies, which have mostly reversed from a slump. Thus for as long as the global revival continues, which would support both private consumption through remittances as well as exports, we expect growth to remain quite strong even with elections over and despite the likely cutback in fiscal spending after earlier election-related frontloading.”

Indeed, most major “corporates” from San Miguel to Ayala and of course, PLDT and the Metro Pacific group, were reporting strong performances. Thus, Romy projects higher than previously expected growth for the rest of the year despite some anticipated problems. “Taking into account some moderation of growth going forward and a bit of a slowdown in expected world growth in the second half, we adjust our GDP growth forecast from 3.7 percent to 5.1 percent.”

Most people are also expressing guarded optimism. We have been burned pretty much badly in the past, but even as some may remain skeptical, a majority chooses to be optimistic. The SWS March 2010 Pre-Election Survey, conducted from March 19-22, found 35 percent of registered voters expecting their personal quality of life to improve in the next 12 months (“Optimists”), and nine percent expecting it to get worse (“Pessimists”), for a Net Personal Optimism (the difference of Optimists over Pessimists) score of +26, higher than +21 in December and +24 in September 2009.

More recent, in its exit poll, SWS also asked three questions: the first asked whether people thought the quality of governance would a) get better (57 percent); b) be the same as now (15 percent); c) get worse (2 percent); or d) no comment (26 percent).

The second asked whether in the coming 12 months the quality of life would a) be better (49 percent); b) be the same (23 percent); c) be worse (2 percent); d) no comment (26 percent).

And finally, over the same period, would the economy of the Philippines a) be better (52 percent); b) be the same (19 percent); c) be worse (2 percent); and d) no comment (27 percent).

There is definitely a lot of hope riding on the new government as it assumes control of the country. It could be a natural reaction, as in a sense of relief that the previous one is coming to a close. But that sentiment can and must be sustained by early accomplishments specially in the arena of good governance. Walang corrupt is the campaign battle cry that will haunt P-Noy throughout his six- year term of office.

In fact, some businessmen are now challenging P-Noy to keep his campaign vow to weed out corruption in his first 100 days in office. That’s an impossible expectation to achieve even by a very determined President. But people must see evidence that he is on to the task of fulfilling that promise.

As the influential Makati Business Club, a strong ally of P-Noy during the campaign, puts it, Aquino should show concrete examples of good governance in the first 100 days of his administration. P-Noy “ran on a platform of good governance, and promised among others, to raise the government’s revenue by implementing a sustained program to prosecute big-time tax cheaters, including corrupt officials of the country’s main collection agencies such as the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs.”

“The expectations are very high. If he just says it’s business as usual, people will say – what happened to your promise?” said Albert Lim, executive director of the Makati Business Club and rumored to be P-Noy’s choice for Budget Secretary.

Ate Glue’s dependable “choo-choos” at the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) are saying the same thing. Donald Dee, vice chairman of PCCI said the anti-corruption charges should start at the Bureau of Customs. “Smuggling in the Bureau of Customs is critical, it will show he is serious in the fight.”

That’s why P-Noy has harnessed Willie Parayno to execute the clean up drive at Customs. Oil smuggling should be first on his agenda. Then there is the need to stop the smuggling of possibly infected Turkish flour for the sake of our people’s health.

If he does his job well, Parayno will probably end up having to deal with problems in the Port Irene Free Trade Zone and that will test the political mettle of P-Noy to the hilt. If you noticed all those nice luxury cars with plate numbers starting with the letter “B”, I understand you can acquire those expensive beauties cheap at Port Irene in Cagayan province.

What P-Noy has going for him which Ate Glue doesn’t is credibility. P-Noy promised to lead by example and based on his lifestyle, it seems he will be able to do that. His sisters are also showing exceptional breeding in their public and private behavior, a refreshing change from the family of you-know-who.

As Business Mirror editorialized: “Sure, the Aquino sisters, all dressed in black and fielding questions with the same graciousness and humility that had marked their behavior during their mother’s presidency, not to mention the radiant beauty (it’s in her soul, not just her face, ’tis apparent) of Mr. Aquino’s girlfriend Shalani Soledad, give us some comfort that the new leader will not be badgered with all sorts of selfish requests from those closest to his heart.

“But that’s just them. There’s a whole new mob out there, including scores of balimbing, strutting about in so high-profile a manner one could almost hear the strains of ‘Happy days are here again’ in their presence.”

What P-Noy must worry about are relatives and friends who will use his name in vain. There are already rumors that some big time corporate wheeler dealers have already placed some people related to him and his family (by marriage) on their payroll in the hopes of using them as access to him for favors.

That’s to be expected because these same characters almost ruined the image of Tita Cory in her time by pretending to have the ability to peddle influence at the highest level. But in fairness to P-Noy, I also heard that he has thrown these “related” people outside of the kulambo, so to speak. He and his sisters may need to do something more drastic to keep the lily white image of integrity intact.

Back to that money manager I had dinner with, she revised the advice she gave at the start of our dinner. From buying and holding local stocks for six months before cashing in, she thinks I should cash in after three months. I think she got a little concerned with all the inside stories shared by the other guys on the dinner table who are working closely with the P-Noy transition team. They seem to have some pretty serious start-up pains and we have yet to see how P-Noy will manage all that internecine conflicts among his supporters. –Boo Chanco (The Philippine Star)