Arrested development: Climate change readiness in the Philippines (First of two parts)

There looms a peril far more threatening in scope and magnitude to the political unrest in the Middle East and other parts of the world. And if the recent floods and landslides that struck the Bicol Regions, Visayas, and Mindanao are any indication, it would seem that the alarm sounded by the Philippines’ foremost policy-making body on climate change is real: the dangers posed by this global phenomenon are as imminent as the urgent need for a quick and decisive response.

“An archipelagic nation of over 90 million people, the Philippines now faces threats from destructive typhoons, drastic changes in rainfall, sea level rise, and increasing temperatures,” said the Climate Change Commission in its 2010 year-end report.

The same report cites that the Philippines is “ranked highest in the world in terms of vulnerability to tropical cyclone occurrence, and third in terms of people exposed to such seasonal events.”

But while both our experts and leaders have long been aware of these dangers, ironically, we are yet to finalize a plan of action that will harmonize and integrate all government programs related to climate change.

In the absence of a National Climate Change Action Plan, all the initiatives of government on both the national and local levels is sheer “patchwork,” former senator and Climate Change commissioner Heherson Alvarez tells the Manila Standard.

“Without a national framework strategy and a national program of action, climate change will destroy us faster than it would any continental country,” says Alvarez.

He refers to a period of no less than two decades when studies predict that its effects—already presently felt—is projected to worsen by 2020 and possibly cross a “tipping point” in 2050 where the severity of its impact may become irreversible.

“The international community stands at a point where even the most aggressive and immediate actions to mitigate climate change will not stop the impacts at least for the next half of this century. While deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions may buy time for human and natural systems to adapt in the decades ahead, human and natural systems have begun to reel from the unfolding impacts,” reports the CCC.

Corroborating the statement, the Asian Development Bank says that rice production in the country may fall from 50 to 70 percent in 2020 with the likelihood of more cyclones, flooding, and extreme weather conditions. According to the study, potentially 6.7 percent of gross domestic product may be lost should government continue with a “business-as-usual attitude toward climate change.”

“The worst is yet to come,” the Bank spokesperson said.

The Philippine Institute for Development Studies estimates that an annual average of $240.7 million, totalling $4.813 billion from 1990 to 2009, was lost in damages due to climate-related occurrences.

The PIDS refers to climate change as “another kind of crisis that is equally devastating as the global economic and financial crisis, perhaps even more threatening, with mankind’s survival put on the line. Its presence and the havoc that it brings have begun to be openly acknowledged and discussed just a little more than 10 years ago.”

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration last year confirmed that the country’s annual mean temperature relative to the baseline period of 1970 to 2000 is projected to increase by 0.9oC by 2020 and eventually doubling to 1.7oC to 3.0oC by 2050.

In April 2010, at least five people reportedly died of heatstroke in Metro Manila alone when temperatures rose past 35oC to a high of nearly 38oC.

But even as temperatures are projected to increase considerably within the next five decades, so too will the rate of annual precipitation or the amount of rainfall per year undergo changes, according to the Pagasa.

The weather bureau predicts variances of anywhere between 0.5 and 17.4 percent in 2020 and between -2.4 and 16 percent in 2050. The CCC 2010 report cites that, “increases in rainfall are particularly evident in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, while Mindanao is projected to undergo a drying trend.”

“Average annual rainfall increase over most parts of Luzon and the Visayas is expected to be 2 to 17 percent by 2020 and 1 to 16 percent by 2050. In contrast, there is a general reduction in regional and annual average rainfall in Mindanao (approximately 0.5 to 11 percent by 2020; 2 to 11 percent in 2050),” it adds. –Karl Allan Barlaan and Christian Cardiente, MST Newssearch Team

Concluded on Saturday