Assessing the hopefuls

With 17 more months to go before the May 2010 presidential elections, coffee shops and board rooms are already debating over next year’s presidential polls, speculating on its possible outcome.

Allow me then to join in on the speculations on the favorite topic of Filipinos where they eat politics for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Regardless of the gloomy predictions on the economy this year.

Let’s start with the opposition presidential hopefuls. There’s former Senate President Manny Villar, crowned head of the Nacionalista Party, who has already announced his candidacy, and in fact, has been campaigning as early as last year. Note that there are television spiels on his concern for the migrant workers. He believes that for every worker he’s helping, there are some five to seven members of that worker’s family that will support him. In fact, Villar goes every weekend to the provinces to organize the NP grassroots as his campaign base for 2010.

The problem with Villar is that he’s big business, with his multi-billion property and real estate developments strewn nationwide. As such, he may not be welcomed by other big businesses in the Philippines, who may see him as competition.

Oh yes, there’s also the charge by other presidential wannabes, led by Senator Ping Lacson, that Villar benefited financially with the construction of the C-5 road extension. The Senate ethics committee has yet to investigate this.

Villar’s advantage over the others is his perceived war chest of no less than P5 billion for his campaign. And my gulay, in the Philippines, the “Golden Rule” prevail! Translation: He who has the gold rules!

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Another presidential hopeful is Senator Mar Roxas, who is relying on the vote-rich Ilonggo and Cebuano provinces with his prominent last name.

Mar is relaying on the resurrected Liberal Party to carry him in the grassroots level. Although Mar has not publicly announced his presidential ambition, he is known to be already campaigning. Now, whether ABS-CBN personality, Korina Sanchez, Mar’s girlfriend, is a plus or minus factor in his bid for the presidency is debatable.

The problem of Mar, who has slid in popularity and acceptability ratings, is his elitist background. His mother is an Araneta.

Lately, he made news when he resorted to an explosive “P—Ina” in denouncing the cha-cha move in Congress as a ploy to extend the term of the President. Analysts say that it was an attempt of Mar to identify himself with the masa, trying to speak their language. However, others say that instead of endearing himself to the masses, Mar’s use of an expletive has not done him any good. People resent candidates who use cuss words.

Mar is said to favor Senator Kiko Pangilinan, an outgoing member of the Senate as his no. 2. A Roxas-Pangilinan team would be a Visayas-Luzon combination. Aside from that, Mar is relying on Sharon Cuneta to campaign for the team.

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Meanwhile, Senator Loren Legarda has been topping surveys but has not yet decided whether to run for the presidency or settle for the vice presidency.

The problem of Loren is that her party—the Nationalist People’s Coalition—whose godfather is businessman Danding Cojuangco—is undecided whether it will be a Loren-Chiz Escudero team or a Chiz-Loren combination. This raises the probability of Senator Chiz Escudero’s running for the presidency as well, under the NPC.

There have been pronouncements by former President Erap Estrada to have Loren as his vice presidential candidate. But Loren has publicly denied this possibility since she claimed she already ran for Vice President, but lost in 2004, to Noli de Castro.

Before I go on the assessment of Escudero’s presidential aspirations, I believe that the biggest setback of Loren is the fact that she’s a woman. Can the Filipinos bear with another woman President? “Ano, babae na naman?” people say.

I’m not belittling Loren’s chances in 2010 if she runs for the presidency. She topped two successive senatorial elections and she is still on top of all surveys. But, does she have the party to support her financially on the grassroots level?

But, who knows, since it’s still 17 months till the May 2010 polls.

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Some people say Chiz Escudero could be the “Obama of the Philippines,” referring to his youth and his being a neophyte senator.

There are those who say that Chiz is too wet behind the ears, and for him to run for the presidency may be a bit too sudden and too soon. We cannot disregard the fact, however, that the majority of the voters are young people between the ages of 18 and 35. They are idealists longing for a fresh face and who can change the country from the rule of the “trapos” to somebody with ideals. And Chiz seems to fill up that longing.

Lest I am misunderstood, I’m not endorsing Chiz for 2010. All I’m saying is that like US President-elect Barack Obama, who was also inexperienced, Chiz could be the answer to the aspirations of the Filipino youth.

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I’m ruling out Senator Ping Lacson who has a checkered background. Remember that in 2004, he already tried running for president—and lost.

The joker in the opposition campaign to return to Malacañang is former President Erap Estrada, who still commands his 15 to 17 percent “masa” base. I’d even say that among all the opposition candidates, he has the best chances of winning.

Erap’s problem is that in law he’s banned from running again. But, if Erap runs at the last minute, and wins, and suppose the Supreme Court hasn’t yet ruled on his case, will the people accept Erap’s disqualification if the Court decides this way?

To me, this is where the danger lies since the people who vote for him will not accept his disqualification. Santa Banana, God forbid, this country could go to the verge of you-know-what!

Now, how about Noli, whether in the administration or opposition? My gulay, he could be the ace card to change the political scenario for 2010. Noli is still topping all surveys of voters’ preferences. –Emil Jurado, Manila Standard Today