David, the underdog, slew Goliath

Outside of the monoliths, Liberal Party (LP) and Nacionalista Party (NP), few other political parties had made a lasting impression in terms of fielding reliable bets for the periodic polls and those political groups that mount a challenge against such parties were parties usually formed by the incumbent.

Thus, it was the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL) for former President Ferdinand Marcos for a long time. Cory Aquino won under the banner of the United Democratic Opposition (Unido) coalition which she quickly dropped after she made use of the Unido vehicle and allied herself with the Laban ng Democratiko Pilipino, which she also dropped when she endorsed Fidel Ramos, who came to power through the Lakas-Kampi-CMD. Joseph Estrada has his own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) when he overwhelmingly won the presidency in the 1998 elections.

Now, the tables are turned as a non-incumbent formed a coalition outside of the two giant parties and is now expected to pose a challenge to the dominant LP.

The LP has tried to put up a brave face over the forming of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) between Vice President Jojo Binay’s PDP Laban and the PMP of Estrada, saying it is not threatened in any way by the Erap-Binay teamup but at the same time, the party, through spokesman House Deputy Speaker Erin Tañada, said the LP has opened its door to the forming of a coalition party.

Something unheard of was even bruited about which is the grouping of the LP and the NP into one banner, which will make the coalition a formidable team up of two giants.

In terms of resources, a merger of the two political titans would be theoretically hard to beat.

The UNA, however, has something which the two giants do not have and that is the mass appeal of its two leading figures, Erap and Binay.

Estrada was the first Vice President to become President in the post-1986 Edsa revolt, and Binay may just replicate the feat with the consistent public support he has been getting.

Noynoy has been trumpeting his high survey ratings from outfits which appear to be massaging the figures in his favor through the leading poll questions but still Binay’s numbers always remain substantially higher.

Erap for his part has never lost his credibility with the public despite the different political intrigues hurled against him, including being sent to jail by the nine-year administration of Gloria Arroyo.

Even Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile conceded that UNA is currently a sleeping giant, a term used in the not so distant past on China which from obscurity rose to become the second most powerful nation next to the United States.

Enrile compared UNA to the biblical David going up against Goliath which is the LP, apparently referring to the contrast in political resources being held by the two parties.

Everybody knows that David prevailed over the intimidating Goliath with a precise slingshot to the forehead of the giant.

As in the story, the Erap-Binay coalition is being shrugged off by the ruling LP saying in effect that it currently has Malacañang and the resources of the government with it while UNA is a fledgling political party.

The litmus test would be the mid-term elections next year when UNA and the LP are both expected to field complete slates for the national positions.

With all the resources at its disposal, the LP and the likely coalition it will form can bet to dominate the elective posts.

With the public support it can command, however, UNA may likely spring an upset.

Binay’s 2010 experience can attest to that.

And let it not be forgot: Erap would have become the president again 2010, if Cory had not died at the time she died.  –Daily Tribune