NEDA forecast 6-7 pct economic growth in 1Q

MANILA – As the first quarter comes to a close, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) on Monday said growth for the period likely settled at 6-7 percent on election-related spending and the recovery in exports.

“We are targeting 6 to 7 percent. We expect within that range for the first quarter,” NEDA Director-General and Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan told reporters in a briefing.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012, and by 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of the same year.

Balisacan said the drivers of growth in the first quarter include remittances, election spending and exports. “So far the indicators are favorable,” he said, citing also favorable earnings of listed firms.

According to the National Statistical Coordination Board, the country’s leading economic index (LEI) registered a negative 0.008 in the January to March period, better than the negative 0.013 in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The LEI serves as basis for short-term forecasting of macroeconomic activity, as it incorporates the behavior of indicators that consistently move upward or downward before the actual expansion or contraction of the economy.

The government set a GDP growth target range of 6-7 percent for this year. For next year, the target was raised to a range of 6.5-7.5 percent.

Last year, the Philippine economy grew 6.6 percent, higher than that of Thailand (6.4 percent), Indonesia (6.2 percent), Malaysia (5.6 percent) Vietnam (5 percent), and Singapore (1.2 percent).

Last year’s economic growth also exceeded the Aquino administration’s target of between 5-6 percent. In the fourth quarter alone, the economy expanded by 6.8 percent. –Darwin G. Amojelar, InterAksyon.com