IMF’s zero growth forecast for RP disputed

MANILA, Philippines – Malacañang disputed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) zero growth forecast for the Philippines this year for being too conservative and not reflective of the prevailing economic indicators.

In a press briefing at Malacañang, deputy presidential spokesperson Anthony Golez said the assumptions used by the IMF for its forecast on the Philippines were way below the numbers used by the government and other institutions.

Golez said the IMF came out with its forecast based on the assumption that the remittances of overseas Filipino workers would decline by 7.5 percent, exports would go down by 20 percent and imports by 18 percent.

However, Golez said for the month of February alone, the figures on OFW remittances showed that it grew by 4.9 percent.

“So that alone would negate the IMF projections,” he said.

Golez also noted that the deployment of Filipinos overseas continues and this would mean that remittances would go up and not down.

He said the World Bank and Asian Development Bank have both projected positive growth rates for the Philippines this year.

“When you compare it to the other projections, theirs is on the conservative side,” Golez said of the IMF projection.

He also said the government has instituted an economic stimulus program that would increase economic activity and in effect boost growth.

“It was originally thought that the deficit would be pegged at P177 billion but the government had revised it to be P199 billion and this will contribute largely to stimulate the economy, which means to say that we would be expecting more than zero growth as projected,” Golez said.

Golez added that preparations for the elections next year would also generate a lot of economic activity brought about by spending of the candidates.

President Arroyo, in a speech at the General Assembly of the Asia and Oceania Stock Exchanges Federation in Cebu yesterday, reiterated that the Philippines is weathering the global crisis better than the other regions.

“We have weathered the worst of the global crisis thus far. That doesn’t mean we have not been affected. We are holding our own. We remain cautiously optimistic that our resources and plans will allow us to manage our way through this difficult time because we rebooted our economy many years ago and this has held us in good stead,” the President said.–Marvin Sy, Philippine Star