Export council lists hurdles to targets

A RISING peso, the inadequate volume of farm exports, and any letup to the recovery of the biggest markets for Philippine exports may prevent shipments of merchandise goods from achieving growth targets, an official of the public-private Export Development Council (EDC) yesterday said.

EDC Executive Director Senen M. Perlada told reporters on the sidelines of a business forum in Makati City yesterday that the agency expects exports of manufactured goods to rise 6% to $57.2 billion from $54 billion last year, 8% to $61.8 billion next year, and 10% to $68 billion in 2016.

These preliminary targets, Mr. Perlada said, will be incorporated in the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2014-2016 that will be presented to President Benigno S.C. Aquino III in July for his approval.

“This is the time to make some adjustments… Under the PEDP 2011-2013, we found that the performance of certain sectors like electronics have been affected so much by the global economic slowdown. We haven’t been able to recover the P8 billion we lost in one year,” he said.

Asked what factors will prevent merchandise exports from growing as hoped, the official said: “As to risks, these include anything that would constrain the sustained path of recovery of Japan, the United States, and the European Union, any relative appreciation of the peso, and possible lack of supply for coconut-based products that may be adversely affected by drought and other climate change elements.”

“Many factors are beyond our control, but the continued solid public-private partnership as embodied in the Export Development Council and focus, focus, focus on building exporter capability and market development will ensure that we move towards our achieving our targets,” he added.

Trade Secretary Gregory L. Domingo said in March that overall exports — composed of both manufactured goods and services — are expected to grow by 8.6% to $82 billion this year, 10.4% to $90.6 billion next year, and 11.91% to $101.3 billion in 2016.

Mr. Domingo also said the government was abandoning the goal of doubling exports to $120 billion by 2016, saying this target was “not realistic” and “not achievable”.

Overall exports reached $75 billion last year, 15% short of an $89-billion target.

Japan was the country’s top exports destination that year, taking in shipments valued at $11.423 billion, 21% of the total. China, including Hong Kong, came closely in second, with $11 billion or a 20% market share, while the United States was third with $7.818 billion or a 14.5% share.

As of end-March, merchandise exports for the first quarter reached $14.263 billion, up 6.5% from the same period last year. –Daryll Edisonn D. Saclag, Reporter, Businessworld