Sudden summer showers

SUMMER is here. Then why is it raining hard in April?

Thirty years ago, summer was always humid and dry. We all know the months of March and April are rainless while November to February are chilly months. When rain starts to pour in May, most kids are out in the streets playing and enjoying the first summer rain.

This summer of 2009 is different. Starting March, heavy rains came with thunderstorms. Some people were not surprised by these weather disturbances because for 10 years, El Niño, La Niña and climate change were in the news. If we all knew the causes of these weather disturbances, should we be alarmed? Yes.

According to the United Nations Environment Program (2009), over the last 400,000 years Earth’s climate has been unstable, with very significant temperature changes, going from a warm climate to an ice age in as rapidly as a few decades.

These rapid changes indicate that climate is sensitive to internal and external climate forces and feedback. Temperatures have been less variable during the last 10,000 years.

Based on the incomplete evidence available, it is unlikely that global mean temperatures have varied by more than 1°C in a century during this period. The data indicate a strong correlation between carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere and temperature.

A possible scenario: anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could bring the climate to a state where it reverts to the highly unstable climate of the pre-ice age period.

Rather than a linear evolution, the climate follows a nonlinear path with sudden and dramatic surprises when greenhouse gas levels reach an as-yet unknown trigger point.

Human activities

Furthermore, the fourth assessment report of the Inter-govermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2009] states that Earth’s climate system has significantly changed since the pre-industrial era both globally and regionally, with some of these changes being caused by human activities.

The average global surface temperature has increased by 0.74°C over the 20th century levels – higher than the 0.6°C increase stated in the IPCC third assessment report.

Snow cover and ice extent have decreased while average sea levels and ocean heat content have risen. This is supported by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s findings that the five highest global annual average surface temperatures recorded in more than a century occurred only in the past 10 years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 in descending order. If this is so, then why are we having a very wet summer?

Impact on the Philippines

Climate change’s impact on the Philippines is associated with extreme weather disturbances such as typhoons and floods. Climate change affects our economic life.

With 50.3 percent of its total area and 81.3 percent of the population vulnerable to natural disasters, the Philippines is considered a natural disaster hotspot. Note the many disasters we survived. The last ones were devastating and damaged resources worth billions of pesos.

The top 10 provinces affected by climate hazards are Albay, Pampanga, Ifugao, Sorsogon, Biliran, Rizal, Northern Samar, Cavite, Masbate, and Laguna.

These areas were visited by super typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions and drought caused by El Niño. We witnessed rainfall changes and temperature increases. In general, Central Luzon and the Bicol region rank high to very-high on the risk scale.

A 40-year observation of five primary tidal gauge stations in the country (Manila, Cebu, Davao, Legazpi and Jolo) showed an increase in sea level near 15 centimeters, the lowest expected sea level rise (SLR) set by the IPCC at the end of the next century (Rincon, 2008).

Environmental degradation

The country’s vulnerability to natural hazards is closely linked to poverty and environmental degradation. Risks from global climate change are expected to further exacerbate poverty, especially among the poor provinces’ vulnerability to natural hazards.

The Philippines’ greenhouse-gas emissions have been on the rise from energy and land-use changes.

The subsector with the most significant rise in greenhouse-gas emissions is the transport sector (279 percent), followed by electricity (89 percent), industrial processes (88 percent) and land-use change and forestry (20 percent) [CAIT, 2008].

The Philippines’ Initial National Communication on Climate Change (PINCCC, 1999) predicts an average increase of 2°C to 3°C in annual temperature in the country should a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere occur.

Major impact areas include eastern Mindanao, portions of Samar, Quezon, western Luzon, Metro Manila, and other highly urbanized areas.

The general circular models by the PINCCC predict rainfall to increase in many areas of the country under the same carbon dioxide scenario.

For instance, a 60- to 100-percent increase in annual rainfall is projected in Central Visayas, Southern Tagalog, and Metro Manila. Meanwhile, an increase of 50 percent or less is predicted in other areas of Luzon, Samar and the central and western parts of Mindanao.

Answer

So these may answer why we are having a wet summer.

On the other hand, a decrease in annual rainfall is expected for other sections of the country such as northern and eastern Mindanao and parts of western Luzon (Rincon, 2008).

The climatic research unit of the World Wildlife Fund also predicts average annual precipitation increases in the Philippines by the 2050s, with some seasonal differences.

The drier seasons of December-February and March-May are expected to become drier, while the wetter seasons of June-August and September-November will have more rainfall.

The projected rainfall increases ranged from a low of about 5 percent, which was not much larger than changes in 30-year average rainfall totals that may be caused by natural climate variability, to as high as 20 percent.

Agriculture, health

Simulations for the major rice-growing regions of Asia have shown that for every 1ºC rise in temperature rice yields decrease by 7 percent.

In the Philippines, simulation models have shown that rice yields can vary from a 6.6-percent increase to a 14-percent decline for every 1ºC rise in temperature (Lasco et al. 2006). This will mean changes in growing seasons, increase damage to crops, livestock and their productivity, plus increase in soil erosion and changes in water resources (irrigation).

The IPCC fourth assessment report says climate change will adversely affect health in the following manner:

• Increase in undernutrition and consequent child growth and development.
Increase in injuries, illnesses and deaths due to heat waves, floods, droughts, storms and fires.

• Increase in the number of cases of intestinal diseases e.g. diarrhea, nausea.
Increase in cardio-respiratory diseases where ozone exposure concentrations increase e.g. asthma

• *Increase in the number of people at risk of dengue, malaria, etc. (Ebi, 2008).

Water crisis

Rincon (2008) mentions that El Niño events in the Philippines have significantly reduced water inflows into major watersheds and reservoirs, causing considerable strain on water resources.

As a result, water for households and irrigation has been severely curtailed, especially in Metro Manila. During severe El Niño-driven droughts, water for agriculture was sacrificed in favor of domestic and industrial use, seriously impairing agricultural land productivity. (Moya and Malayang, 2004).

We need to prepare for a water crisis soon if we don’t address climate change. (See 10 things people can do.)

Decisive green behavior can make a big difference in our daily lives, health, environment and country. Choosing more natural products, organic food, and renewable energy will save Mother Earth, thus saving humankind.

Today, we have to dream and breathe green. Living green is the only way forward.

(Carmina V. Tolentino, who has a Ph.D. in environmental sciences, is the dean of arts and sciences at Manuel S. Enverga University in Lucena City. She directs Mt. Banahaw conservation research and is active in Ayta community education extension.)

Top 10 provinces affected by climate hazards

Albay
Pampanga
Ifugao
Sorsogon
Biliran
Rizal
Northern
Samar
Cavite
Masbate
Laguna

Kids and carbon footprint

What is a carbon footprint?

Your carbon footprint is the amount of carbon dioxide created from your everyday activities. Carbon dioxide, the most plentiful greenhouse gas, “traps” the sun’s heat and contributes to global climate change.

Kids can easily learn and adopt ways of shrinking carbon footprints if they are taught in school. Making it fun to learn will inspire them to practice shrinking their carbon footprints.

Climate-change education is the key to saving Mother Nature and ourselves. Start with young kids e.g. preschoolers. They can make an enormous impact on saving the planet while they grow up.

Curriculum review must be required in all schools to include not only in science the topic of climate change but in all courses because this will make information manageable.

Teaching kids how to shrink their own carbon footprint is a start.

Camarines Sur: A one-meter rise in sea level is projected to inundate
2,268 hectares of land. It has a population of more than 1.55 million.

References
CAIT (2008). “Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 5.0.”
Online
Habito, C.F. 2002.
Climate Change and
National Development,
a presentation made on Nov. 8, 2002 at Ateneo Professional Schools
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. (1999). The Philippines’ Initial National Communication
on Climate Change
Lasco, R.D., et al. (2006). Climate
Change R&D at the World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)-
Philippines
Rincon, M. F. (2008)
Climate Change in the Philippines: A Contribution to the Country Environmental Analysis, paper presentation on June 16-17, 2008.
UNEP (2009) Available on line at http://www.cli
mateark.org/overview/
United Nations (2007). Philippines 2006
Typhoon Appeal.
Geneva, United Nations.
World Bank (2005). Country Assistance Strategy for the Philippines, 2006-2008.
Washington, D.C.
World Bank (2007). The Little Green Data Book. Washington, D.C.

World Bank (2008).
Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Fight Against Poverty.
Washington, D.C.
World Bank (2008).
Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Fight Against Poverty.
Washington, D.C.
World Bank Intranet CEA website: http://go.worldbank.org/T0I0Z0WS80

Carmina Villariba Tolentino, Philippine Daily Inquirer