Economy to grow by 4%, says NEDA

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is likely to grow by four percent this year or within the revised GDP forecast of 3.1 percent to 4.1 percent, a ranking National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) official said yesterday.

In a briefing yesterday, Dennis Arroyo, director for policy and planning, said growth would come from the expected increase in domestic consumption and the strong demand in local tourism.

“We believe the four percent (GDP) growth is achievable,” Arroyo said.

Arroyo said that while the number of displaced overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) has increased to 6,405 as of end April from roughly 5,700 in March, there are other job openings available in other countries, particularly in the Middle Eastern region.

With this, he said there is no way remittances would contract.

“There’s no way remittances will contract. Hopefully, it would go beyond a zero percent growth,” Arroyo said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Plipinas (BSP) expects dollar remittances from OFWs to post a zero growth this year from 13.7 percent growth in 2008.

Remittances last year amounted $16.4 billion.

In terms of first quarter growth projections, Arroyo declined to provide any estimate but said that growth in the second, third and fourth quarters would be stronger than the growth in the first quarter.

Arroyo said election spending – expected to take off this year – would also help boost the economy.

Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran has said that the national elections in 2010 are expected to boost the economic growth by 0.5 percent next year as consumers are expected to spend more.

Beltran said that next year’s elections are expected to boost certain industries such as the printing and publishing, media and the advertising industries. This, in turn, would help fuel consumer spending in 2010.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) expects the economy to grow anywhere from 4.3 percent to 4.7 percent in 2010 from this year’s revised economic growth projection of 3.1 percent to 4.1 percent. –Iris C. Gonzales, Philippine Star