Airlines see turnaround in 2010 but more job losses feared

KUALA LUMPUR — Airline executives Tuesday expressed hope of a turnaround next year after fresh estimates showed they may lose close to US$20 billion from 2008 to 2009 due to the global economic slowdown. With oil prices threatening to rise on expectations of a U.S.-led economic turnaround, delegates to the annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said some carriers may start making money in late 2010.

And some saw China, and its massive export-based economy, as a crucial engine of growth for the stalling industry.

“In our view, we see recovery towards end of 2010. We think recovery will start there,” said Alan Joyce, chief executive of Australia’s Qantas.

“Our regional operations are holding well. Our long-haul is losing money,” he told fellow members of IATA, which represents 230 airlines accounting for 93 percent of scheduled international air traffic.

“The Japanese market is particularly weak. Swine flu is having an impact,” said Joyce.

IATA chief economist Brian Pearce told AFP that the Asia-Pacific region, which is forecast to lose 3.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2009, or more than a third of global losses, may see a recovery next year, with Europe lagging other regions.

He said government spending to stimulate consumption would help airlines.

“The U.S. and North American markets will come out earlier than Europe,” he said.

Pearce added that during such a stormy period, “airlines would love to merge but restraints on ownership will prevent it.”

“You will see alliances and coordination by airlines to cut costs.”