MANILA, Philippines – University of Asia and the Pacific (UAP) professor and economist Bernardo Villegas expects the country’s economy to grow by close to six percent in the fourth quarter of this year.
Speaking at the 1st Marketing summit of the Philippine Marketing Association (PMA) at Sofitel Plaza Hotel, Villegas said the Philippines is among the very few countries in the world today that will register a positive growth. “Why are we bothered about the 0.4 percent growth in the first quarter. This will improve some more,” he stressed.
“Remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) will not decline. Whatever the International Monetary Fund is talking about is not true, they do not know what they are saying. I have studied OFW remittance behaviors in Barcelona for the past five years, where I lived,” Villegas said.
Villegas said that as the country moves towards the end of the year, government will be spending more to pump prime and put infrastructure in place to be able to win votes. “They will move heaven and earth now, not next year so they will put in all the funds to pump prime the economy,” Villegas said adding that all over the world governments are pump-priming.
“Then, there will be private pump priming from Villar, Roxas (including his massive wedding spending), Teodoro and others running for president, Senator and Congressmen. Their election spending will definitely push the economy to higher positive growths,” he said.
He said there is “zero probability” that the world will see the great depression of the thirties happening again (lacking the factors that led to it) and that the stock market today is not going through a crash but just a roller coaster.
This (economic) crisis will shift economic power to China , India , Vietnam and the Philippines.
Villegas said that all developed economies are having negative economic growth rates unlike emerging markets like China India, Vietnam and the Philippines which are expected to post a “U curve” growth rate.
“ Japan will be at an “L curve” meaning from its peak it will just stay flat while the United States will have a “W curve” marked by sharp ups and downs because of its overspending.
He said that in 10 to 20 years, China will overtake the US as the new economic superpower. –Rose De La Cruz, Philippine Star
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