Analysts point to low inflation as big factor
The Philippines will likely avoid a recession this year because of remittances, strong consumption, low inflation and interest rates and high liquidity, business analysts said on Tuesday.
Speaking at a forum at the Philippine Stock Exchange, the analysts said that the economy likely grew in the second quarter and the momentum is expected to be sustained for the whole of 2009.
“The performance of the stock market mirrored the performance of the economy,” said Stock Exchange President Francis Lim, citing the composite index, which has risen 26.2 percent since the start of the year.
Eduardo Francisco, president of BDO Capital and Investment Corp., said that there was about P1.2 trillion ($24.8 billion) of liquidity in the system.
“My clients are seeing growth . . . they are just looking for avenues to invest,” he told reporters.
The optimistic forecasts were in contrast to those of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which have forecast a contraction of 0.5 to 1.0 percent, respectively for the Philippines this year.
The World Bank and the IMF cited the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of only 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 as evidence of a slowing economy. GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country in a year.
Jaime Ysmael, chief finance officer of property giant Ayala Land Inc., said that the country’s property sector was up 31 percent.
He attributed this to continued positive GDP growth despite the global turmoil, large remittances from the millions of Filipinos working overseas, inflation falling to 22-year lows and the reduction in interest rates.
“Consumer spending remains robust,” house building is strong and the Philippine business outsourcing industry is still thriving, Ysmael said.
“We are really in a positive growth scenario. It looks like it will accelerate later on,” he added.
Jose Vistan, head researcher at AB Capital Securities, said that his company had originally forecast a 0.4-percent drop in GDP this year but that might be raised because of signs that the economy performed better in the June quarter.– AFP
September 18 –
International Equal Pay Day
“Increase wages now,
more than other cost items.
For widespread, practical equality!”
Invoke Article 33 of the ILO Constitution
against the military junta in Myanmar
to carry out the recommendations of the 2021 ILO Commission of Inquiry
against serious violations of protocols of
Forced Labour and Freedom of Association.
Accept the National Unity Government (NUG)
of Myanmar. Reject Military!
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October –
Monthly Observances:
Industry and Commerce Safety Month
National Statistics Month
Local Government Month
Consumer Welfare Month
Cooperative Month
National Quality and Productivity Improvement Month
National Health and Wellness Tourism Month
National Indigenous Peoples Month
Weekly Observances:
Week 1: Elderly Filipino Week
Week 2: National Health Education Week
Local Government Week
National Mental Health Week
October 17-23:
National Week for Overcoming Extreme Poverty
October 18 – 24:
United Nations Week
Last Week:
Nurses’ Week
Consumers’ Protection Week
Week of the 4th Sunday:
Barrio Farmers’ Week
Daily Observances:
First Monday (Oct 4): Universal Children’s Day i
n the Philippines
Oct 5: National Teachers’ Day
Oct 10: Local Government Day
Third Thursday (Oct 14): Conflict Resolution Day
Oct 21: Tenants’ Emancipation day
Oct 24: United Nations Day
Oct 29: National Indigenous People’s Thanksgiving Day
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