Economy

Editor’s note: Following is the continuation of the second and last part of a report on the President Gloria Arroyo’s final State of the Nation Address, which will be delivered today. The first part of this series reviewed the President’s 10-point agenda, and part two began by looking at her administration’s claims of fast growth.

Today President Gloria Arroyo will deliver her valedictory State of the Nation Address (SONA). The act is the highest level of public accountability for the president that is mandated in the Philippine Constitution—for the country’s chief executive to report to Congress, the bureaucracy, and the Filipino people on the state of the nation.

(Second of two parts) RAPID economic growth in recent years, perhaps one of President Gloria Arroyo’s few and widely acknowledged achievements amid the steady slide in her popularity ratings, could turn out to be as debatable as her devotion to good governance and anti-corruption.

But new score still below investment-grade MOODY’S Investors Service said it has raised the Philippines’ credit ratings one notch, citing the country’s healthy financial system and its ample dollar surplus despite the global economic crisis.

MANILA – The Philippines is seen to perform better in the second half of the year, especially after posting a positive growth during the worst of the global downturn.

MANILA, Philippines – Moody’s Investors Service has raised its sovereign rating for the Philippines to Ba3 from B1 previously, noting the country’s high degree of resiliency against external shocks.

Alleviating poverty, curbing HIV, managing climate change   Because of global recession, the Philippines has not kept up with meeting the Millennium Development Goals set by the United Nations, a UN official said Thursday.

Remittances may not be as ‘robust’ – bank   The Philippine economic growth forecast was most likely to be revised downward this year because of the expected drop in remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), Asian Development Bank said.

MANILA, Philippines – With recent forecasts of major world economies moving out of recession and the revised outlook on the US economy, the Philippine government has become even more confident the country would avoid a recession this year.

New York based think tank Global Source said that the Philippines would likely avoid a recession this year but would have a snail’s pace growth through next year.

An international think tank sees the Philippine economy growing 3 percent in 2010, from a 1.8-percent contraction this year when the country suffered from the impact of drastic drop in global trade.

DAVAO CITY – War in Mindanao is “like an anchor” pulling the entire Philippines down, according to US Ambassador Kristie Kenney.

MANILA, Philippines – Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., the country’s biggest lender, expects the Philippine economy to make a “slow, steep climb” in 2009, although ending at a marginal 0.25-percent growth rate for the whole year.

MANILA, Philippines – The Congressional Planning and Budget Department (CPBD), the think-tank of the House of Representatives, has cut its economic growth forecast for 2009 on the back of the lower-than-expected growth in the first quarter of the year and despite expectations that the economy grew faster in the second quarter.

Analysts point to low inflation as big factor   The Philippines will likely avoid a recession this year because of remittances, strong consumption, low inflation and interest rates and high liquidity, business analysts said on Tuesday.

The Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) yesterday expressed concern over the rise in violence in the country, labeling the current situation as that of “unpeace” that is not only “distressing but disturbing, and even tragic.”

French bank forecast MANILA, Philippines—Paris-based investment bank Calyon sees the Philippine economy growing by only 1 percent this year but avoiding the recession seen in most of its neighboring economies.

AFTER Standard and Poor’s (S&P) kept its junk credit rating on the Philippines, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) asked investors to continue believing in the government.

MANILA, Philippines – Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has retained its stable outlook on the Philippines, indicating that the ratings are unlikely to change over the short term.

The Philippine economy will stay afloat in the first half of this year on the back of an improvement in retail sales and government spending, indicating that the state’s full year growth target will be met.

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said the economic slowdown is taking its toll on bank lending, citing its deceleration in recent months.

NEDA expects more investors coming in The government sees slow but sure rebound of the economy late this year despite dire prediction that the country would experience recession before 2009 ends. “Well, moving upward is the direction. And the current target of 0.8 percent to 1.8 percent [growth in the gross domestic product for 2009]…

MANILA – The slowing growth pace of exports, remittances, and foreign direct investments (FDI) will pull the country’s economic growth to a range of -1 and 1 percent this year, an economist said Thursday.

Malacañang conceded on Tuesday that there was cause for concern over a World Bank prediction that the Philippines would slip to “outright recession” this year, even as the Finance secretary rejected the idea.

MANILA, Philippines – A businessman expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow over two percent this year despite the measly 0.4-percent economic growth in the first quarter.

I’ve been arguing that the central characteristic of the Philippine state is its continuing weakness, which prevents our political system from delivering development to our patient people until now.

(Last part)   THE Philippines’ disappointing first-quarter economic performance has shattered the official consensus about the country’s supposed resilience amid the worst financial crisis since the 1930s Great Depression.Before the shocking admission that it was “teetering into recession,” the country’s economic managers were unanimous in saying four things.

In January, a government official (I won’t name him so he’s not further embarrassed than I hope he is already) said: “The Philippines is feeling the impact of the global crisis. But our economy is tough, and this has been acknowledged by many rating agencies. The economy will be even more resilient as pesos are…

Calamity fund tapped to boost fight vs. A (H1N1)   THE continued spread of Influenza A(H1N1) in the Philippines may slow economic growth in the second quarter as Filipino consumers are likely to defer going to the mall to spend, according to pundits.

The economy will not go into recession and is expected to grow 2.5 to 4 percent this year, according to economist Bernardo Villegas.