THE COUNTRY’S medium-term economic blueprint will be “updated” by next year to take into account internal and external developments, a Cabinet official yesterday said.
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Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters there was a need to revisit the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) to make it more relevant and considering the lingering sovereign debt crisis in Europe and slowing growth in China.
The government will also take into account developments in the first three years of the Aquino administration, he added.
“There are many things that happened that makes the plan a bit off in some instances like our growth projections, our infrastructure programming. So we need to recalibrate to make sure that what we intended to do for the fourth year, indicated in the PIP (Public Investment Program) and in the plan will still be consistent with the realities and the past experiences, the experiences in the past three years,” Mr. Balisacan said.
Economic growth dipped to 3.9% in 2011 following underspending by the Aquino administration, while delays hampered the implementation of the government’s centerpiece economic program: private-public sector partnerships intended to boost infrastructure.
The PDP 2011-2016, released early last year, adopted a goal of achieving “inclusive growth,” or “growth that matters”.
Work to update the development blueprint, which is supposed to be reviewed midterm, will start in the third quarter, Mr. Balisacan said. The updated PDP is expected to be completed by June next year.
“We need to adjust our growth targets based on what is happening in Europe… and the decelerating growth of China. Whatever happens there will have an impact [on our country],” he added.
Mr. Balisacan, however, did not say whether the country’s growth trajectory would be changed as a result.
The current PDP aims for 7-8% growth annually.
The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has raised macroeconomic assumptions under the 2013 budget, assuming growth to hit 5-6% this year, 6-7% next year, 6.5-7.5% in 2014, 7-8% in 2015, and 7.5-8.5% in 2016.
The DBCC assumptions, however, are only for fiscal planning, Mr. Balisacan said.
“That is being reviewed twice a year. As new realities came, you have to change your parameters. We are using the DBCC process as a fiscal tool. If for example, the economy decelerates, the question asked is: Should we try to intervene to do some fiscal stimulus, for example. So regularly the assumptions are revisited,” he added.
The updating of the PDP will be “a good time” to take into account recent developments such as the release of the new executive order maintaining the suspension of mining permit issuances pending Congress’ revision of revenue-sharing arrangements.
“The review is an attempt to know where we are,” said Mr. Balisacan. — T. P. Octaviano, Businessworld
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