The International Monetary Fundurged European policymakers to deepen the financial and fiscal ties within the euro area with some urgency to restore sagging confidence in the global financial system.
In its semi-annual check on the world’s financial health, the Fund said the euro area’s debt crisis was a key threat and the risks to global financial stability had risen in the last six months leaving confidence “very fragile.”
The euro area’s plodding progress means European banks are likely to offload $2.8 trillion in assets over two years to reduce their risk exposure, an increase of $200 billion from a prediction six months ago, the IMF estimated.
“Despite many important steps already taken by policymakers, this agenda remains critically incomplete, exposing the euro area to a downward spiral of capital flight, breakup fears and economic decline,” the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) released on Wednesday.
“Risks to financial stability have increased since the April 2012 GFSR, as confidence in the global financial system has become very fragile,” the IMF said.
The report adds to the gloomy backdrop to the IMF’s semiannual meeting to be held in Tokyo later this week. On Tuesday, it said global economic slowdownthe was worsening as it cut its growth forecasts for the second time since April and warned U.S. and European policymakers that failure to fix their economic ills would prolong the slump.
Last week, Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty expressed his latest sign of frustration over progress in resolving Europe’s debt crisis by saying it represented a “clear and present danger.”
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The Good, Bad & Ugly for the Euro Zone
Stephen Sheung, VP & Investment Strategist, SHK Private discusses the possible scenarios the euro zone will face in 2013. He adds that market volatility could rise if the ECB’s bond-buying proves to be ineffective.
In September, the European Central Bank agreed to buy the bonds of debt-strained governments once they have signed up for a euro zone bailout program, restoring some market confidence and narrowing the spread between core and peripheral debt in the region.
But private investors still lack confidence in peripheral European markets and the difference between the yields on peripheral and core debt from banks and companies remains high, threatening any recovery, the IMF said.
Under current policies, the IMF estimated European banks will shed $2.8 trillion in assets between the third quarter of 2011 and the end of 2013, higher than the $2.6 trillion it had predicted in April, further squeezing credit availability.
And if European policymakers do not fulfill promises to establish a common bank supervisor, and peripheral countries do not follow through with adjustment programs, the costs could be even higher, with $4.5 trillion in lost assets, and additional impacts on employment and investment.
Risks from the euro zone could also spill into emerging markets, where growth is already slowing. Countries in central and eastern Europe are the most vulnerable to financial shocks, given their exposure to the euro zone and their own entrenched external debts, the report said.
And while the U.S. and Japan have benefited from safe-haven flows away from the euro zone, the IMF said both countries need to do more to reduce their fiscal burdens in the medium term.
The U.S. faces a so-called “fiscal cliff” — government spending cuts and tax rises due to take effect early in 2013. Japan is carrying the biggest public debt burden among leading industrialized nations at twice the size of its $5 trillion economy at a time when its social welfare spending is under constant pressure from a rapidly aging population. (Read More: ‘Fiscal Cliff’ May Actually Turn Out to Be a ‘Fiscal Slope.’)
“The key lesson of the past few years is that imbalances need to be addressed well before markets start flagging credit concerns,” the report said. –Reuters
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